Archive | August 1, 2011

21UTC 2 Aug Okinawa Update

Good Morning Okinawa!  From what I see many people are taking this one seriously and emptying out the commissary.  I hope you have done the same.  We in for a long couple of days. Here is a rough time line of what we can expect:

— Winds of 35 mph or greater, 3 a.m. Wednesday.
— Winds of 40 mph or greater, 9 p.m. Wednesday.
— Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday.
— Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 a.m.-10 p.m. Friday.
— Strongest winds on Okinawa, 86-mph sustained with 138-mph gusts, between noon and 3 p.m. Friday.
— Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
— Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 p.m. Saturday.
— Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 8 p.m. Saturday.

Now these can change.  It has been looking better and better again the last few hours.  Everyone needs to keep up to date on this storm..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Muifa is forecasted to come within 11nm from Kadena.  As you see from above Wednesday we should start TCCOR conditions  and they are saying we could be in 1E locked down for almost 2 days!  Make sure you have enough supplies.  The stores are starting to run low on fruits, bread and water.

Stay Safe, Be prepared and always check back for updates!

0930 UTC August 1, 2011 Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Video Update

This is my latest video update for Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan). Also for the latest text update, please read Rob’s analysis and forecast posted around 05 UTC today. Check our blog regularly for the latest updates from me, Rob, and Brian as Muifa moves ever closer to Okinawa and the Ryukyu’s.

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Muifa / Kabayan Update 01 AUG 2011 05UTC

Typhoon Muifa / Kabayan is currently over 500nm to the SE of Okinawa and moving in that direction. After reaching super typhoon status yesterday a weakening trend began to occur after upper level conditions became less favorable due to subsidence along the north west periphery. Yet good equatorial inflow continues to pump warm moist air in to the storm and will allow it to maintain a it’s significant intensity as it tracks North and then North west towards Okinawa.
The main mechanism for this tracking is a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge to the NE and NW. Thus currently the storm is slowing tracking to the N within this lull, starting tomorrow though the ridge to the NE will build in pushing the storm more towards the East China sea where it will track towards the Ryuku islands.
Given current model output and stream line analysis the system will likely track just North of Okinawa by about 100nm. (streamline and model output below.)

My thoughts is it will transit slightly North of JTWC’s and JMA’s current track but not by far as there will still be winds gusting above 100kts at times over the island of Okinawa. Yet good news would be if the storm does take a track to the Noth it will ease the risk of storm surge as the right front quadrant would spare Okinawa.
Current landfall forecast is expected to be on the 5th for the Ryuku islands, given the lack of steering flow at this time and the current speed of the storm this seems to be very likely.
For all the readers in Okinawa please continue to check JTWC and JMA’s forecast and glad you have took the time to read this update. Currently TCOR 4 remains in effect for the bases on the island yet I’m sure this will go to 3 within the next 36 hours. Also please check PAT’s in depth video updates and Brians on the scene updates from Okinawa as this storm approaches the island, all here at westernpacificweather.com.

Lastly, I am still in Australia thus my updates have been far and few between, defiantly have enjoyed the time here though. So thank you for the company Australia, times I will never forget!