Archive | August 9, 2011

Invest 92W gets tore apart by Wind Shea NW of Guam, 09 AUG 14UTC Western Pacific Outlook

The tropics remain relatively quieter today than they have been over the past few weeks. One area that remains on the threat radar though is a area of convection NNW of Guam. Good news with this though is that through the day today this has encountered a large amount of vertical wind shear above 50kts at times. This has drastically tore this area of low pressure apart and really decreased the threat level associated with it.

Given the amount of vertical wind shear and also cooler SST’s due to upwelling from Muifa I give this area a low chance of development, yet it does deserve to continue to be watched.

Otherwise as already noted the tropics remain relatively quieter, there is a large amount of thunderstorms blowing up over china the last two days associated with cold air moving in from the north interacting with warmer tropical air coming out of the South China Sea. I would expect these to continue over the coming week and even strengthen after the 12th moving up towards southern Japan as an area of low pressure initializes along this front over china and moves towards the East. (MODEL OUTLOOK BELOW)

Meanwhile the Philippines continues will see yet another easterly wave moving over the islands today bringing heavy rainfall at times. This is nothing organized yet will amplify the effects of the afternoon heating.

Lastly I do want to note I should have another weather share coming up here in the next week, and also within the next several weeks I will be attempting to start producing video updates yet again. Defiantly prior to the start of the peak typhoon season. As always though please continue to watch Pat’s updates and stay safe out there everyone.

Meteorologist Robert Speta