Archive | August 12, 2011

13W Dissapates, Low moves Across Korea in to Japan; 12 AUG 2011 13UTC Western Pacific Weather Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W is all but a distant memory now with all convection blown off due to wind shear and dry continuing to be wrapped in to the system. On that note the tropics are relatively quite; with no invest areas it looks like we may get a break from the tropical action at least for.

There is an area of convection near the Philippines today enhancing the monsoonal flow and bring un needed rain to the southern reaches. This is nothing organized yet there is a continued threat of mudslides in this region due to the unseasonable high amount of rain the region has received in recent months. A few of the models are picking up on some sort of development in this region over the next week yet it is long range and not to promising. ( Model outlook below)

Meanwhile the westerly’s continue to have activity, a low developing out of china is bringing rain and thunderstorms across the Korean peninsula and extending in to Eastern china today, this is forecasted to continue to drift east over the weekend and enhance summer time thunderstorms across Japan. The Kanto plain has a fair chance of seeing these thunderstorms yet they will likely be more concentrated to the south.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

0830 UTC August 12, 2011 TD 13W Update

Tropical Depression 13W is now dissipating south of Japan. Both JTWC and JMA gave their final advisories for this system earlier this morning. Latest VIS image (below) is still showing a fully exposed low-level circulation center. Convection, though, has really waned and barely exists now. This system is no longer expected to re-intensify although wind shear has relaxed in the area where 13W is (now around 10kts) and sea surface temperatures are still around 25-27C. We’ll continue to monitor this feature and will update you if it reforms again.

Latest VIS image of TD 13W from NRLMRY

-WxCaster PAT