Possible Tropical Development South Of Guam, while a Trough Of Low Pressure brings Heavy Rains to Korea and Japan / 16 AUG 2011 13UTC

Good news across the tropics today as the threat for development remains relatively low for the time being. There is one invest located just south of Guam that deserves some watching though, it is sitting in an area of relatively low wind shear of 10kts while the heat ocean content remains high with temperatures reaching near 90F through the region. Currently the area remains relatively disorganized though, yet as it continues to track west with the monsoonal trough there is a fair chance of it gaining organization over the next several days. Thus by the weekend the threat for development with this system will increase as it approaches the Philippine Sea.

Below is the model outlook as well, displaying CMC and NGPS both picking up on this system developing at least for a short period of time. Another threat area non-tropical in nature yet bringing severe weather regardless is a trough moving across the Korean Peninsula and extending in to China today. The model outlook below also picks up on this region displaying its projected path in to the Sea of Japan and towards northern Honshu. This area has been bringing thunderstorms across china the last several days and unfortunately the trough as a whole looks like it will continue to persist while for several more days while drifting off towards the East. Therefore an increase in rain showers and thunderstorms along the western portions of the Alps in Japan seems likely during the latter part of this week.

Also noting the heavy thunderstorms and Rainshowers in Korea today..

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

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