Archive | August 19, 2011

Invest 94W brings potentiol for Tropical Development while a Frontal System lingers from Japan to China / 19 AUG 2011 13UTC

An invest north of Guam is the main highlight for today in the western pacific, a broad low level circulation attached to widespread disorganized convection makes up this system currently. Upper level winds above this system are favorable for development as well noting the wind shear chart below showing wind shear around 10kts in the vicinity of Guam.

Also below is a model ensemble displaying NGPS, UK and GFS all developing this system in the coming days and bringing it toward the East Coast of Japan, specifically the heavy populated Kanto Plain area by the 24th in to the 25th, thus if this is the case it will be a quick developing system over the course of the next 4-5 days. I would like to strongly note though it is currently in it’s early stages and the model outlook could vastly change. Mainly due to the trough lingering over Japan today, this could end up disrupting the low bringing an abundant amount of wind shear with it while pushing it off to the North East before it gets a chance to develop.

JTWC currently has this area listed as a LOW potential region for development while JMA continues to not have anything out on it. At this time as listed above I believe it does deserve watching, but nothing to get to excited about currently. Another update will be put out tomorrow by either PAT or myself on this system.

On another note the trough over Japan as noted above is stretching back to Korea and in to China today producing rain showers and thunderstorms through the region, from Tokyo to Seoul heavy rain showers have been reported today and it looks to continue over the next 24-48hrs, these rain showers bring the potential for flooding and mudslides specifically in the Tsunami stricken area where the ground is already unstable and loose.

That is all for today, I also want to mention in the next week or so I will start putting out video updates again, so please continue to check in!

~Meteorologist Robert Speta