Archive | August 22, 2011

21UTC 23 August Okinawa Weather

Seems like it has been ground hog day around here with the weather…same every day..Highs in the upper 80s low in the upper 70s and party to mostly cloudy…however there are some changes headed into the weekend.  Thursday through Saturday call for chance of showers with the temps being around the same that they have been High Upper 80’s low Upper 70’s

Now what we need to keep our eye on is recently upgraded TropiCal Depression 14 Models for a few days now have put this system really close to Okinawa.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Could be a big couple of days headed into early next week…still too soon to say when or if or how big it will be if it comes by here.  A lot can happen and we will closely monitor it for changes and updates. Keep checking back here and we will sure to put them up as soon as possible

– WxCaster Brian

 

Tornado cuases one death and several injuries in Kyushu

Tornado in Kyushu

A frontal boundary  continues to bring rain showers and thunderstorms across Japan today as shown on the radar below. This also brought a Tornado in Kyushu near Fukuoka yesterday killing one person and causing several injuries as it moved through Fukuoka prefecture yesterday. A sake brewery was reported completely damaged while over 30 houses also took damage during this event. 

Tornadoes are not common in Japan yet not unheard of. Commonly with tropical systems the southern Islands will see weak tornadoes yet every once in awhile when cold air moves south from Russia and interacts with warm air out of the tropics and form a frontal boundary that creates the potential for severe weather. Good news with this system is it was well forecasted and a Tornado warning was issued well in advance of this event therefore likely causing a decrease in the amount of fatalities and injuries.

The frontal system is as close to a mirror image to the spring rainy season front and in some parts it is called the Shurin Front, the season that separates summer and fall in Japan, despite the fact it is about a month early. This front will remain in place through the week so defiantly umbrella weather across all of Japan and in to South Korea. The one relief will be if the tropical area south of Japan forms it will disrupt this front and potentially decrease the rainfall briefly, I note briefly because the tropical system in itself has the potential to bring massive amount of rainfall.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

For more information on the tornado please check this link. http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110822p2a00m0na006000c.html

Please continue to check back for newer updates and as always stay safe.

Tropics are Prime for development / 22 AUG 2011 15UTC / 00I

The tropics remain a cluster of semi-organized activity today, with that said something is brewing in this chaos and it is looking like the entire region from the Philippine sea to Guam is prime for development. Starting off with the MJO starting to build in over the western pacific increasing the convection and positive vorticity. This has triggered off two invest areas that both have the potential for gaining strength. (see the satellite shot above to show these two areas)

Starting from left and going right there is invest 96W, JTWC continues to hold a TCFA on this area indicating it had the potential to form in to a tropical system, yet it has failed to maintain organization and I feel that in the near future this will not develop further, but that this cloud mass will drift east north east towards the other invest, invest 95W that continues to remain situated near Guam. This merger could possibly happen on the 25th in to the 26th prior to possible development of a new area on the 27th south of Japan. I would strongly like to note though as in my last update this is all speculation and these invest areas are currently in there hardest phase of forecasting, the initialization. Therefore today is one of those days where we need to continue to closely monitor these regions for any further development and as always be sure that if you live in a tropical threat area to be prepared for the potential for a severe system at any time. We are starting to get in to peak season when typhoons can blow up in the matter of hours and threaten your local area.

Below is the model ensemble for today displaying the potential of development in the tropics.

Please continue to check back for newer updates and as always stay safe.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta