Archive | September 13, 2011

12 UTC 13 SEP 2011 Western Pacific Weather Update

Tropical Depression 18W continues to struggle to form East of the Ryuku Islands, while high pressure produces fair weather across Japan with the acceptation of Hokkaido where heavy rain showers are dumping a high amount of precip.

0830 UTC September 13, 2011 | TD 18W Update

Tropical Depression 18W has been somewhat erratic this past 12 hours and has actually veered away from its westerly movement. It is now moving east northeastward at around 10kph. Maximum sustained winds are still the same at 55kph gusting to 75kph as per JTWC. Due to the ENE movement, TD 18W has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

As for the forecast, computer models are in somewhat good agreement as to the future movement of TD 18W. Our philosophy here has not really changed and we are still expecting TD 18W to resume its westerly course towards Ryukyu Islands.

JTWC’s forecast brings TD 18W very near Okinawa and Amami by Sunday as a Tropical Storm. TD 18W is really having a hard time trying to consolidate and this is why we are limiting the system’s expected max intensity to just within the TS threshold. Nevertheless if the JTWC forecast pans out, Okinawa will still likely see strong winds, not typhoon force, but still significant and must not be belittled. Due to the large circulation and wind radii, I would expect winds to get stronger beginning Friday.

JTWC Forecast Map

Unfortunately, I have been really busy with school lately and have not been able to do any video updates, rest assured though that Met Rob Speta is still doing those so we hope you continue watching them. Stay safe!!

-WxCaster PAT