Archive | December, 2011

Low Pressure Areas over the South East Asia 31 December 2011

As reported earlier, we are currently watching two developing low pressure system in the South East Asia.

First of all we have Invest 99W over the Philippine sea just South East of Mindanao. It is located approximately 490km from the General Santos City.The storm has been stationary over the past 24 hour but somehow will bring some  cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over Eastern and Southern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Residents over the area of Southern PI are advice to stay alert on local announcement and beware of the possibility of some landslides and flooding in low lying area. The JWTC however has pulled of an invest warning over this low pressure area but the NCF is still giving a 20% of Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability in the next 24 hour which is considered very low.

On the other hand, over the Malay Peninsula we have another low pressure system, invest 98w which me, pat and rob has highlighted over the past 2 days. The system is still lingering around the South China Sea resulting a rough sea and strong winds over the coastal area of Peninsula Malay and Southern Thailand and not to forget also the Gulf of Thailand affecting some area in the Southern region of Vietnam. Currently this system is bringing some heavy rain over the East Coast of Peninsula Malaysia and East Coast of Southern Thailand.

The Thailand Meteorology Department has issued a heavy rain and thunderstorm warning over the Southern East Coast of Thailand and warned of a possibility of flash flood in some low lying area. The Malaysia Meteorology Agency on the other hand forecast some isolated rain showers over the east coast of Peninsula Malaysia (States of Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and extended to Johor) for the coming few days while the Northern states of Kedah and Perlis will be having some isolated and scattered thunderstorm or cloudy day in the next coming weeks.

The rough sea and strong winds warning issued by the MMA over the South China Sea by today is extended until the 5th of January 2012. A Third Category warning indicating winds over 60kmph and sea waves over 5.5metre is dangerous for small boats and oil rigs.

We will keep an update from time to time for both the system if its continue to develop.

Stay safe and have a good day.

P/S: Happy New Year 2012

WestPacWx SE Asia Caster ~Francis~

Tropical Cyclone Thane Leaves 33 Dead & New LPA over Mindanao, 31 DEC 2011

Tropical Cyclone Thane left 33 confirmed reports of deaths in it’s wake yesterday as the storm made landfall south of Chennai packing winds of 140km per hour at landfall. Wide spread reports of damage to structures and power outages are still be reported in the region in the wake of the cyclone.

Good news out of the region though is the North East Monsoon currently taking place over India, this is pushing dry air from the North in to the storm causing it to rapidly weaken and it wrings out the moisture the storm picked up over the Bay of Bengal. Therefore any fears of the storm re-forming over the Arabian Sea seems unlikely at this time but not completely out of the question as the center of the low moves back over warmer waters.  For videos of the destruction click here for an assortment of videos found after the storm made landfall. 

 

Meanwhile two more low pressure areas in the Pacific continue to bring the threat of heavy rainfall fall to South East Asia. One of these is being dubbed “Invest 98W”, this area does not show large potential of development in to a tropical storm yet still has ingredients to bring a large amount of rainfall to the southern Philippines through the weekend and in to next week. Already in areas across Mindanao reports of rainfall have topped 80mm in the past 24hours putting a damper on relief efforts in the region that continues to recover from the destruction that occurred a little over a week and a half ago in the southern Philippines from Tropical Storm Washi.

Tropical Update for South China Sea and Philippines | December 30, 2011

We are currently watching two weather disturbances in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. Invest 98W is located approximately 400km south southwest of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. It is embedded along a line of rain showers due to the wind convergence. JTWC is currently giving 98W a LOW chance for development. However, as it moves westward, we expect it to bring widespread rains across Thai-Malay Peninsula, including Cambodia and even Singapore. Precipitation could begin this weekend and amounts could be as high as 200mm.

This VIS image from NRLMRY shows the location of 98W.

Another system is Invest 99W located approximately 400km east of Mindanao. It will likely bring widespread rain showers for Eastern and Southern Mindanao this weekend. Rainfall amounts could range from 100 to 200mm.
Stay tuned for more updates on all things tropical: Thane in India and Benilde (04S) in the South Indian Ocean. This system also has a low chance for development but it still has the potential to cause flashfloods and landslides so we’ll keep an eye on these systems.

-WxCaster PAT