Archive | December 13, 2011

TD 26W and TD 27W Update Dec 14, 2011

Tropical Depression 26W has dissipated while 27W has strengthened slightly over the Western Pacific. Here is an IR Image from NOAA showing the locations of the two systems:

JTWC has given out their final warning for 26W last night. The system is now dissipating just south of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 350km southeast of Ho Chi Minh. Rain showers associated with this system could bring some rain across Southern Vietnam today although amounts will mostly be light.

TD 27W, on the other hand, has strengthened overnight and winds are now around 55kph to 75kph. 27W is moving westward at 25kph and could approach Palau later tonight or early tomorrow. Conditions remain favorable for intensification and 27W could become a Tropical Storm as early as today. It could even intensify into a typhoon, depending on how favorable the environment is down the road. Forecasts still take 27W across Palau and eventually towards the Southern Philippines by sometime around Friday.

We’ll have more info today on our afternoon update.

-WxCaster PAT

TD 26W and TD 27W Update December 13, 2011

We are currently tracking two systems today (that’s right, two!). We still have Tropical Depression 26W in the South China Sea, but then we also have a new system–Tropical Depression 27W out in the Pacific.

Locations of the two systems using IR Image from NOAA:

TD 26W

The system is now weakening as it moves across the South China Sea, south of Vietnam. Its last location is around 550km south southeast of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum sustained winds are still at 45kph gusting to 65kph. TD 26W is moving southwestward at 15kph.

Despite being in a low-shear environment, the system really didn’t intensify further partly because of the dry air being cause by the NE Monsoon. The slightly low SST’s in this part of the South China Sea didn’t help either.

Nevertheless, TD 26W will still produce light to moderate rain showers along extreme Southern Vietnam over the next 24 to 36 hours. We are not expecting big rainfall amounts for Vietnam though. As the system continues to lose steam, it is forecast to dissipate altogether as early as tomorrow. Its remnants could continue moving westward, following the overall flow in the region. Rain showers could push into Southern Indochina (Cambodia, Thailand) and even Singapore by the latter part of this week.

TD 27W

Tropical Depression 27W is the newest system in the Pacific, located approximately 780km south of Guam. Maximum winds range from45kph gusting to 65kph. 27W is moving westward at 20kph.

27W is taking advantage of the good conditions in the Pacific in its continued intensification. Convective activity is increasing and is becoming more organized. A microwave image also shows good banding in the low to mid-levels. Weak wind shear, high sea temperatures, and a moist atmosphere, will help 27W intensify more in the coming days.

We are forecasting it to continue moving westward, moving near Palau by tomorrow, and eventually entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility, by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Due to the good environment, 27W could become a Tropical Storm tomorrow. In fact, JTWC is even expecting this to become a Typhoon before hitting Southern Philippines!

JTWC’s 06z Forecast for TD 27W

We will have more info regarding this system in the coming days. Be sure to check out Rob’s video updates as well.

-WxCaster PAT