Archive | December 26, 2011

SE Asia Heavy Rain Update 26 December 2011

Merry Christmas everyone and here is the latest update on the heavy rainfall in the SE Asia. The formation of Tropical Cyclone Six B within the Bengal sea has been a very good news to the SE Asia as mentioned earlier by Rob in his video. Latest satellite imaginary shows that most of the moisture has been drifted by this TC to the bay of Bengal resulting a fair weather within the SE Asia continent especially the severe rain hit Southern Peninsula Malaysia and Singapore. And we can also visibly see in this satellite image Tropical Cyclone Six B in the Indian Ocean. As reported earlier, it is expected to make rainfall on the 30th of December. Further update on this TC will be posted by Rob later today.
However, there will still be some rain cloud in the SE Asia region especially in the Borneo Island (Sabah, Sarawak, Brunei) and also the PI. Information obtained from the Malaysia Meteorology Agency below shows that there is still some heavy precipitation in the Borneo states for the past 24 hour.

The Malaysia Met Agency has issued a Orange Stage heavy rain warning for Sarawak and this warning is expected to persist until the 27th of December indicating there is a high possibility of flood in some low lying area. As for the state of Sabah, the MMA issued heavy rainfall for most of the area within the states. And as usual, the Southern Peninsula of Malaysia (States of Johor) is still experiencing moderate heavy rain in several area and this has continue for several weeks. The heavy rainfall and flood warning for the states will remain until 27 December and will be extended to earlier next year if the situation worsen. This year monsoonal trough has brought a very heavy rainfall to the southern region states (Pahang and Johor) and conversely, compare to previous year, the Northern Peninsula Malaysia (Penang, Kedah and Perlis) has experience a fairer weather and the possibility of heavy flood similar to last year is very low this year.

However, the latest run of the GFS model does not sound favouring. The northern region states of Peninsula Malaysia is expected to experience a large surge of monsoonal trough and this will result a bad weather by 30th and 31st December. This surge also will cover several area of the Southern Thailand. We will keep everyone updated with the latest information on this surge if weather goes along as forecast.

As for Brunei, the NWP has forecasted heavy rainfall for several area within Brunei and also the coastal area of the Brunei sea. The Brunei Met Agency has also forecasted some heavy precipitation to happen within the borner of Brunei and Malaysia indicating that some area located nearly to Brunei in the Sarawak and Sabah states will experience heavy rain. This heavy rainfall is expected to happen within the next 24 to 48 hour.

Meanwhile for Singapore, the Met Agency has forecast an intermittent light to moderate rain for the next three days with the possibility of windy and cloudy day is very high. The weather for Singapore has improved compared to the previous week which we have seen heavy precipitation for the whole states.

Finally, I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a happy new year and have a very good year ahead.

Stay safe and have a good day everyone.

WestPacWx SE Asia Caster ~Francis~

Tropical Cyclone Six B East of India, 26 DEC

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center announced the formation of Tropical Cyclone Six this morning located about 465nm East of Chennai India. At this time the forecast brings the storm towards the west making landfall just south of the city on the morning of the 30th with winds at Tropical Storm intensity of 50G65kts. Currently the storm is being battered by Vertical wind shear yet model guidance is indicating a release of the shear in the next 24hours allowing the storm to further intensify as it moves over warm waters.

Below is a technical update from our partner at 28storms posted on the 25th. We at westernpacificweather will have a video update on this storm as well later today.