Archive | December 27, 2011

SE Asia Weather Update and Forecast 28 December 2011

As reported by Pat and Rob earlier today, an area of low pressure is developing over the Philippine bringing a large amount of precipitation in the past 24 hour and the latest run on the GFS and NoGaps model indicating that this surge of low pressure will move westward onto the South China Sea and to Indochina and also the East Coast of Peninsula Malaysia later this week.

Currently, the numbers of evacuees affected by flood as of today is approaching 10,000 people with approximately 7800 victims from Sarawak (Borneo), 1200 from Johor (Southern Region) and the rest of the numbers made up by victims from Sabah and Pahang. All the victims are being placed in 41 evacuation centres nearby flood areas.

The Borneo Island (Sabah and Sarawak)

The following image illustrate the amount of rainfall for the past 24 hour in the South China Sea and both the Peninsula Malaysia, Borneo region and extended way down to Singapore. It is reported that the amount of rainfall in the states of Sabah ranged between 100mm to 200mm in the past 24 hour.
Also, we are seeing some heavy precipitation in the coastal area of Sarawak with an amount of rainfall between 100mm to 150mm in the past 24 hour and the MMA has maintained its Orange Stage heavy rain warning to several area in Sabah and at the same time, retracted the warning for the states of Sarawak as a result of an improved weather.

Peninsula Malaysia

Meanwhile, for the Peninsula Malaysia, clear weather today with some isolated heavy rain and thunderstorm in several area in all the states. However, the MMA has issued a possible continuous intermittent rain occasionally moderate over the Southern region state (Johore and Pahang) beginning today until the 30th of December 2011.

At the same time, the East Coast of Peninsula (States of Kelantan and Terengganu) is experiencing sea level rise or high tides and it has been reported that this surge of high tides has created some flooding ranging from 0.3 metre to 0.5 metre with several business unit alongside the seaside is being flooded. We have several photo down below for our readers on the high tides affecting some sea side business unit and wreaking some havoc and damages along the way.

Rough Sea and Strong Winds

The MMA has issued a Third Category Rough Sea and Strong Winds for the waters off the East Coast of Malaysia and also the Coast of Borneo Region with winds over 60kmph and waves more than 5.5meter. The warning is extended to 29th of December. Meanwhile the Thailand Meteorological Department issue a wind speed of up to 45kmph and waves as high as 3 metre for its Southern East Coast region. The Singapore weather agency also issued a wave high of 3 metre for today.

Weather forecast for Singapore and Brunei

Singapore is expected to have more afternoon showers and experience a fair weather during the morning and evening hour while for Brunei, NWP forecast brunei to experience some scattered thunderstorm across the states at different hour of the day. This most likely is due to the effect of the low pressure surge moving westward from the Philippine to the Borneo region.

Finally, two videos on the rough wave and the remnant of the high tide hitting the east coast of Peninsula Malaysia.

Stay safe and have a good day everyone.

WestPacWx SE Asia Caster ~Francis~

Rainfall update in the Philippines | December 27, 2011

We hope you had a wonderful Christmas!

Right now, heavy rain continues to dominate the Southern Philippines, rubbing a salt in the wound as they say. More than 200mm have fallen in the past 24 hours alone in some locations in Mindanao. Areas in Region X (near CDO and Iligan) have also recorded 150 to almost 200mm. Furthermore, places in Visayas such as Cebu, Negros and Leyte Provinces have also reported heavy rains. We have created a simple graphic below showing the rainfall accumulations in the past 24 hours. Data were collected from PAGASA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and NASA’s TRMM. Please do note that there may be discrepancies with the data so please use them with caution.

The rain is not limited to the Philippines, however. Heavy rains were also reported across much of Borneo Island. The combination of the ITCZ and a tropical disturbance is bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain across the entire region. This batch of showers is moving slowly to the west and will eventually affect Indochina and Malay Peninsula by the latter part of this week. Meanwhile, rain will continue for most of the Philippines and Borneo so expect another 100 to 200mm of rain in the next 24 hours.

The video Update below is a look at this rainfall and what is expected over the next week.  Also in the video we take a look at Cyclone Thane in India and Ex-Cyclone Grant over Australia.

This IR image (from NOAA) below shows the wide coverage of the precipitation in the region.

Please stay tuned for updates on the tropical systems Grant and Thane in the Indian Ocean.

-WxCaster PAT ~Video added by Meteorologist Robert Speta

The following is the latest information from GDACS on the WAHI aftermath.

  • The death is revised up to 1,171, while the number of missing remains unchanged at 1,079 and the number of injured raises to 4,594, reports the Government.
  • The number of people seeking refuge with families and in spontaneous shelters increases, while the number of people in evacuation centres drops.
  • More assessments are required with particular focus on those affected by the storm in remote villages (barangays) and living with relatives and friends outside evacuation centres.
  • Greater focus needs to be placed on needs and delivery of assistance in areas outside Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, in particular Lanao del Sur, Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
  • Transport is needed to move goods arriving from outside of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan; additional, longer-term storage facilities for the arriving relief items also need to be identified.