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SE Asia Weather Updates 03 JAN 2012, Flooding in Malaysia and LPA near the PI

A low pressure area previously reported by Rob is now a named Invest 90W. JTWC & JMA have not warned on this area yet Pagasa has reported that located  ~510 km East of General Santos City (5.5°N, 130.0°E)

Information from the NCF indicating that this disturbance has shrunk and become disorganized as it remains stationary. The probability of developing into a cyclone is only at 10% which means a very low chance to develop into anything in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Regardless on if this area develops further the possibility of flash floods and landslides still exist across the souther portion of the country. The region is still recovering from the effects of Washi and with the soil already saturated the threat is even further enhanced. Already Hinatuan in Mindanao has reported 56mm of rainfall in the past 24hrs according to the WMO. This is an indication of the more rain fall to come in the coming days as this low slowly drifts to the North West.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure which is reported to be crossing the Peninsula Malaysia and Thailand has now dissipate. The region which is previously hit by flash flood is now experiencing fair weather over the past 2 days. However, both the Malaysian and Thailand Meteorological Department still kept a warning of heavy rainfall over the area of Southern Thailand and Northern Region of Malaysia.

At press, the Malaysia Meteorological Agency has issued a Yellow Stage heavy rainfall warning expected to occur over certain area in the states of Pahang and Johor beginning on the 6th of January until the 8th of January 2012. Also, the same level of heavy rain warning has been issued over the states of Sabah beginning on the 5ht of January until the 8th of January. This is inline with the latest GFS model run indicating a surge of energy moving across the South East Asia during that particular period of time.

The Rough Sea and Strong Winds warning issued earlier over the South China Sea will remain until the 5th fo January 2012.

Finally, Singapore and Brunei will be as usual having some effects of the monsoonal rain in the afternoon and evening hour in the coming few days. Thunderstorm and isolated rain is expected all across the region for both states.

We will continue to monitor the weather across the region and keep everyone up to date.

Stay safe and have a good day.

WestPac Wx SE Asia Casters ~Francis~

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