Archive | January 26, 2012

Philippines 3-Day Forecast | January 26, 2012

We are currently watching a cold front diving down Visayas as can be seen on this satellite image:

IR Image from NOAA

This front is bringing scattered showers across Central and Eastern Visayas. A group of light to moderate rains are also affecting Mindanao bringing rain amounts of between 50 to 80mm. Luzon, on the other hand, will have mostly clear skies with breezy conditions especially Northern and Eastern Luzon.

Showers for the south will continue for the next 2 days. Clearer weather expected for Mindanao by Saturday. Next chance of showers will come on Sunday as a weak Tropical Wave (currently east of Palau) approaches. Temperatures will remain normal, although somewhat cooler across Northern Luzon.

3-Day Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL

Another update by Sunday (January 29, 2012)

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Cyclone Iggy Update 26 JAN 2012

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is currently located 515nm North West of Learmonth packing winds of 45G55kts today. Its forward momentum is slow at this time and is expected to remain so over the weekend.  This will allow it more time to increase in intensity as it remains in favorable conditions for development. Currently JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is forecasting a max of 80G100kt winds as the storm moves south. With that said the forecast track and the possibility of a landfall is still uncertain at this time.  The model outlook to the right shows that model coverage today has come together and is predicting the storm to remain off the coast as the Australian high remains in place to the East.

Therefore xpect rough waves along the coast of Australia with a high potential of rip currents creating dangerous beach going activity’s.  Through the rest of the week rain is not expected along the coast as well but in to the weekend it will increase. The BOM has addressed this stating, “Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however coastal communities near the North West Cape, including Coral Bay, Exmouth and Onslow may experience gales during Saturday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara and on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.”
I am unable to do a video update at this time but we will continue to keep you posted on this storm and its development in to the weekend.  The chart below is the forecast track and winds issued by the BOM.

Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 26 1 15.7S 107.8E 110
+6hr 8 am January 26 1 15.8S 107.7E 130
+12hr 2 pm January 26 2 16.2S 107.9E 155
+18hr 8 pm January 26 2 16.7S 108.2E 175
+24hr 2 am January 27 2 17.1S 108.5E 195
+36hr 2 pm January 27 3 18.0S 109.1E 230
+48hr 2 am January 28 3 18.6S 109.5E 280