In the Northern Hemisphere the Solar Winter may be over (ending on Feb. 5th) but the meteorological winter is still in full swing as cold air continues to entrench the region. In certain regions of Mongolia temperatures barely reached the negative teens today (Celsius) as a strong1058hpa area of high pressure dominates the area and continues to ridge in towards the South. With this North Westerly winds continue to bring cold air over the warm Sea of Japan dumping even more snowfall in the area. On the West side of Japan a post lee side trough developing in the wake of a cold front well east of the country is producing rainfall to areas of the Kanto plain through Thursday morning, this is expected to taper off as the weather stabilizes with the approaching high. The surface analysis above from KMA depicts this pattern with the areas of precipitation indicated in green.
This pattern is forecasted to remain in place through the rest of the week until a short wave trough picks up a pressure system over china thus developing a low on Sunday in to Monday. A similar pattern will develop as we have seen the last several days with rainfall expected from Taiwan to Southern Japan with Snowfall in Korea and Northern Japan. The image to the right shows the GFS model outlook on Monday evening indicating the developing low over Japan.
South of the Polar Front jet in to the tropics the North East Monsoon is bringing afternoon showers to much of the tropics. The only area of significant interest is a disorganized area of convection South of Guam today. This area is expected to continue to track west with the easterly flow and effect the PI on Friday in to Saturday. Pagasa The main threat with this system is enhanced afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers. Also the potential for localized flooding and mudslides persist, specifically in the south and towards the Eastern Visayas where the ground is still unstable from the 6.7M Earthquake that hit the region earlier this week.
Towards the West Malaysia and Thailand remain dry today despite the occasional air mass thunderstorm as noted above. The image below is from the Malay Meteorological Service showing the only weather events being isolated thunderstorms caused by the sea breeze and afternoon heating.