Archive | February 22, 2012

Fair Weather Sets in over the Tropics while the Rainy Season Starts to fire up in the North. 23 FEB 2012 Outlook

The North East Monsoon is in a lull faze currently across the Philippines towards South East Asia, this comes at no displeasure to most of the population as much of central Visayas continues to recover from the large earthquake that struck the region just several weeks ago.   Rouge rain showers continue to fall in isolated areas though but overall rain totals should not add to anything more than 50mm at the most.  See PATS update from earlier today for a detailed outlook on the PI and his 3 day forecast. (Seen Right).  This pattern should remain in place through the remainder of the week.  With the Madden Julian Oscillation remaining weak in this portion of the globe expect sunny skies most of the time at least through the weekend.  A perfect time to get out of the house and enjoy the country side or to do that yard work you been putting off.   This fair weather though is going to remain concentrated in the tropics.

  As we look North Across Eastern China, Korea and Japan we see a deepening area of low pressure pushing out of the East China Sea.  This low is expected to continue to deepen while pushing east in to Japan.  Ahead of it though expect a surge of warm air being pulled in from the south bringing temperatures above average to much of Eastern Japan. Yet this will be short lived and by Thursday night in to Friday heavy rain showers  and isolated thunderstorms will hit much of the area to the south with snow settling across Korea over to Hokkaido. (Radar to Left showing Rain over Japan)  As the low pushes off away from Japan even  more rainfall is expected to linger across Eastern China through the Ryuku islands through the weekend in to next week as the Rainy Season stationary front gives us a taste of its development. Typically this front does not fully start up until May in to July but as we push towards March we do see it begin to light up like someone striking a match. 

Please continue to check back for more updates and as always stay safe out there.

~Meteorologists Robert Speta

Philippines 3-Day Forecast | February 22, 2012

We are looking at mainly clear weather for this week for much of the Philippines. There are some thunderstorms that are forming, though, particularly across Luzon. These thunderstorms shouldn’t last too long although they certainly can bring a huge volume of rain in small span of time so please watch out for landslides and flashfloods. Right now, thunderstorms are being spotted across Central and Southern Luzon, Cordilleras, parts of Palawan and Zamboanga Peninsula. Again, these should begin to die down tonight although won’t be surprised if some areas report more than 50mm of rain.

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

We expect to see more rogue thunderstorms like these develop throughout the week as the weather really allows for all that heat to rise and enhance convective activity, particularly during the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, urban areas could see as high as the mid 30s, particularly Manila and Davao. Aside from isolated thunderstorms, next chance of precipitation comes in this Friday. As the cold front dives down, there could be some showers developing along Northern and Eastern Luzon areas. Unfortunately, the cold front won’t be bringing much relief in terms of temperatures.

For Visayas and Mindanao,  mainly clear weather as well with isolated thunderstorms. Next chance of precipitation arrives this weekend. The ITCZ is being modeled to make a push westward and enhance rain showers for Eastern Visayas and parts of Mindanao. Not looking at big rains here so only put 40% and 50% for Cebu and Davao, respectively.

Next update will be this Saturday, February 25.

-WxCaster PAT