Archive | February 25, 2012

26 FEB 2012 Australia Weather Update

Australia has active and unsettled weather occurring across most of the North as the Monsoonal trough re-emerges from its short slumber. Currently the BOM is clearly indicating consistent rains on there 4 day outlook found here. This matches up with model outlooks where GFS is also indicating a persistent pattern of rainfall across the North with a strong area of low pressure effect South Australia by mid-week. (The image to the right shows the GFS outlook for mid-week) At this time tropical development chances remains low yet they do warrant a close eye. Check out our partners at OZCYCLONECHASERS for a very in-depth look at what you may expect out in this region during the coming days.

26 FEB 2012 Western Pacific & Eastern Asia Weather Update

Great Beach Day in Palua

The story remains unchanged as we go in to Sunday for the tropics.  This weekend still remains a great beach weather day for the Philippines, Guam and even much of South East Asia as the North East monsoon remains laxed across the region.  Therefore expect clear skies for the most part in the the tropics over the course of the week. A few exceptions still remain, first is the daily afternoon tropical thunderstorms that could produce some heavy rainfall at times.  These likely be accompanied by a few bust of lightning, yet none should be severe and rainfall should remain low as Pat stated in his earlier update.  High temperatures will also remain tropical in nature with them peaking up in to the low 30s from Guam to Thailand.  Once again enjoy this great weather.   Typhoon season 2012 is only just prior to dawn currently, a short lived night for the western pacific.

2012 Typhoon Summary as of FEB 26

If your anywhere from Eastern China to Japan though this week will be 180 degrees in the opposite direction.  Heavy rainfall is expected to fall in most of the region while a series of low pressure areas push across the boundary of low pressure that is set up currently.  Therefore keep your umbrella handy and be sure to dress warm as snow will be expected in northern Japan through Korea as well.  Dense fog is also setting up across much of China including Hong Kong due to the cold air spilling in from the North over the relatively warmer surface of the region.  This is often seasonal and should become more relaxed in the weeks to come.  (On the surface Chart below the dots in Yellow indicate fog with the dots in green indicating rain.)

Philippines 3-Day Forecast | February 25, 2012

Absolutely gorgeous weather these past few days for much of the Tropics. We haven’t really seen any major precipitation over the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. A few thunderstorms here and there and that’s just about it for this part of Asia. Furthermore, accompanying this weather are warm temperatures that are being registered across the region. Manila, for example, has hit their warmest temperatures this year with a reading of 34.4C last Thursday. As the grip of winter and the NE monsoon begins to weaken, we expect more temperatures like this across SE Asia. As Rob said in his earlier update, this also means we’re now awaiting the “real” start of the tropical season in the Western Pacific.

Anyway, as for the forecast, clear weather will continue for the next few days with only isolated thunderstorms to worry about. Hopefully, most of the rains won’t be too much of a concern although still be wary of the potential for flashfloods and landslides from these brief storms. Some rain showers could work their way in early next week, especially in Mindanao, as the ITCZ tries to move westward.

3-Day Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Next update will be on Tuesday, February 28.

-WxCaster PAT


25 FEB 2012 Western Pacific & Eastern Asia Weather Update

Today the active weather remains over Eastern China out through Japan as a series of low pressures linked together by a elongated stationary boundary march across the region.  This has added up to some high totals over the past 24hrs with over 60mm being recorded in several areas along the Ryuku islands extending through Eastern China. This adds to the already high number from the last several days leading to over 100mm in some locations.  Through the coming week we still expect this boundary to linger bringing more unpleasant weather to the westerlies.  There will be some breaks in the weather yet from now until next saturday most of Eastern Asia will remain Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers.  See today’s GFS outlook for a clear gauge on when and where this rainfall will occur.  For the most part though its going to be a wet and cool week across Japan and Korea with the Eastern half of China feeling the unpleasant conditions as well. The western portions of the country should remain cold and dry though as the Siberian high ridges in from the north suppressing any weather. ( Click on the image to the top right to see the surface analysis for the region.)

In the tropics the weather remains benign with little to no cloud cover being seen in most areas on satellite.  This is being reflected with warm temperatures and great outdoor weather across Southeast Asia.  Tropical Season is only right around the corner so take advantage of this great weather while the time allows you too! A weak surge of the monsoonal trough may flare up by the end of the week but this will remain concentrated to the south along Borneo through Mindanao.  This could change though but something that could bear some watching as we get in to next weekend.

Have a great day everyone and enjoy your weekend! ~Meteorologist Robert Speta