Archive | February, 2012

Philippines 3-Day Forecast | February 25, 2012

Absolutely gorgeous weather these past few days for much of the Tropics. We haven’t really seen any major precipitation over the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. A few thunderstorms here and there and that’s just about it for this part of Asia. Furthermore, accompanying this weather are warm temperatures that are being registered across the region. Manila, for example, has hit their warmest temperatures this year with a reading of 34.4C last Thursday. As the grip of winter and the NE monsoon begins to weaken, we expect more temperatures like this across SE Asia. As Rob said in his earlier update, this also means we’re now awaiting the “real” start of the tropical season in the Western Pacific.

Anyway, as for the forecast, clear weather will continue for the next few days with only isolated thunderstorms to worry about. Hopefully, most of the rains won’t be too much of a concern although still be wary of the potential for flashfloods and landslides from these brief storms. Some rain showers could work their way in early next week, especially in Mindanao, as the ITCZ tries to move westward.

3-Day Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Next update will be on Tuesday, February 28.

-WxCaster PAT


25 FEB 2012 Western Pacific & Eastern Asia Weather Update

Today the active weather remains over Eastern China out through Japan as a series of low pressures linked together by a elongated stationary boundary march across the region.  This has added up to some high totals over the past 24hrs with over 60mm being recorded in several areas along the Ryuku islands extending through Eastern China. This adds to the already high number from the last several days leading to over 100mm in some locations.  Through the coming week we still expect this boundary to linger bringing more unpleasant weather to the westerlies.  There will be some breaks in the weather yet from now until next saturday most of Eastern Asia will remain Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers.  See today’s GFS outlook for a clear gauge on when and where this rainfall will occur.  For the most part though its going to be a wet and cool week across Japan and Korea with the Eastern half of China feeling the unpleasant conditions as well. The western portions of the country should remain cold and dry though as the Siberian high ridges in from the north suppressing any weather. ( Click on the image to the top right to see the surface analysis for the region.)

In the tropics the weather remains benign with little to no cloud cover being seen in most areas on satellite.  This is being reflected with warm temperatures and great outdoor weather across Southeast Asia.  Tropical Season is only right around the corner so take advantage of this great weather while the time allows you too! A weak surge of the monsoonal trough may flare up by the end of the week but this will remain concentrated to the south along Borneo through Mindanao.  This could change though but something that could bear some watching as we get in to next weekend.

Have a great day everyone and enjoy your weekend! ~Meteorologist Robert Speta

24 FEB 2012 Western Pacific & Eastern Asia Weather Update

A stationary boundary extending across eastern china to southern Japan is still bringing cloudy skies with occasional rain to most that region today. This comes in the wake of a large area of low pressure that effected much of the region yesterday but now is racing away from Honshu towards the Northern Pacific.   Rainfall is currently being reported  across much of eastern china and in a few of the Ryuku islands this morning.  This rain is expected to remain scattered to isolated as another low pressure system develops off of this boundary by Monday. This will bring another shot of the wet stuff to most of the North.  Therefore for those of you in the across Korea and in to Japan that have a break in the cloud cover this weekend take advantage of it before the next westerly low runs through. Temperatures across Japan as well will reach the double digits for the highs while across the Asian interior they continue to stay in the single digits if not below freezing.

An exception to the break in the cloud cover though is snow being reported across Western Japan.  The Ocean effect snow machine that we have been hearing about so much this winter is kicking up yet again with the cool northerly air coming across the Sea of Japan.  The image to the right shows up to 50mm of snowfall expected over the next several days. This is adding up on the several meter snowpack already in place across much of North East Honshu.

To the South the tropics remain quite, as we talked  about yesterday the rainfall has tapered off as the Northeast Monsoon takes a break from the heavy amount of precipitation it has been producing the last several weeks.  Today most of the easterlies from Guam to Thailand look clear on satellite. The exception continues to remain the isolated afternoon storm that usually effect the tropics. But with the uplift low currently these should remain far and few between through the weekend.  This is going to be accompanied by tropical temperatures with most of the Philippines today reporting there lows only in the low 20s.

Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy the fair weather if you have it!

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Six Lows of the Western Pacific and Eastern Asia

The western pacific is a very dynamical place when it comes to atmospheric pressure systems.  The westerlies play a pivotal role bringing different types of cyclonic systems to some of the most populated places on Earth. The video above is a good forecaster training tool that describes the six main lows of Eastern Asia and how and when one should forecast these.