Archive | March, 2012

Tropical Storm Pakhar Morning Update | April 1, 2012

Tropical Storm Pakhar has weakened overnight and is now nearing landfall along the southeastern coast of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 300km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 75kph gusting to 100kph. Pakhar is moving westward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Fortunately, Pakhar never recovered much strength yesterday. Apparently, dry air and wind shear couldn’t be overcome by Pakhar. However, the storm remains a strong system and the infra-red image still shows cold cloud tops forming near the center. Already, reports of 100mm of rain coming from areas just northeast of Ho Chi Minh. With the approach of Pakhar, we expect 100 to 200mm of rain to fall within the next 24 hours. Furthermore, with the recent movement as it is, we are now expecting Pakhar to pass at or very near Ho Chi Minh later this afternoon. It will then rapidly weaken to a tropical depression as it crosses into Cambodia later tonight. It will then move within 100km east of Phnom Penh and is then forecast to dissipate altogether by Monday morning.

We’ll have round the clock updates throughout today from other contributors as we monitor Pakhar’s landfall. My next update will be later this afternoon. Stay safe everyone!

-WxCaster PAT

31-01 March / April Western Pacific Weekend Weather Update

With Tropical Storm Pakhar moving towards the Vietnam coast today we have shied away from the weather across much of the Westerlies.  Great news is for the rest of the weekend most of China in to Japan will be under high pressure following a deep westerly low that brought gusty winds across Japan today.  The observation below was taken Saturday afternoon in at Tokyo International Airport as storms blew through the area.

RJAA 310618Z 20024G38KT 4000 SHRA BR SCT020 BKN030

The areas bolded display the winds sustained at 24G38kts, I personally experienced this gust front today breaking my umbrella in the process. Meanwhile heavy rains were reported in Japan with reports of over 52mm in northern Honshu. Meanwhile Korea seen heavy rains with 72mm reported in Busan. Good news is that with the high pressure setting in Sunday in to Monday Japan will see fair and seasonable weather.

The next westerly low will begin to form out of Eastern China on Monday developing quickly before moving on towards Korea and Japan. The image below shows this low by Tuesday morning as it charges across Korea. So be sure to have your umbrella ready by mid-week.

Click the image to see the GFS model outlook.

With this next low moving off to the East by mid-week China will be seeing fair weather with the next high moving in behind it. Including Hong Kong, yet by the end of the week tropical moisture will push North with the remnants of Pakhar drifting North.

Click here for Hong Kong’s Forecast

For more information on Pakhar please check out the various in-depth updates throughout the weekend as the storm approaches the coast.

Adonis Update  on Pakhar

Pats Update on Pakhar

Francis Update on Floods in Malaysia

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Tropical Storm Pakhar Afternoon Update | March 31, 2012

Video By Meteorologist Robert Speta

Tropical Storm Pakhar was last located approximately 350km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110kph gusting to 140kph (1-min). It continues to move westward at around 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The infra-red image above shows Pakhar slowly approaching the southeastern coast of Vietnam. We’ve highlighted a few areas of interest in that image. First, we’ve noted the return of very cold (around -70c) cloud tops near the center. There has also been an increase of convection in the eastern periphery of the storm since the past 6 hours. This increase in activity could very well be attributed to the slight dip in the wind near Pakhar (of around 10knots or so). A series of microwave image (not shown here) in the past 6 hours also show that the inner structure is still intact and that inflow is still strong despite the presence of dry air south of Pakhar.

Furthermore, the image above also suggests that rainclouds are beginning to move into Southern Vietnam. As much as 100mm of rain could fall here in the next 12 hours alone. Since the radar coverage here in Southern Vietnam is almost nil, we’re only relying on satellite image and airport observations for reports (if you happen to live within the path of Pakhar, we appreciate any ground reports you can give us: just leave a comment or email).

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Since Pakhar weakened, it has stayed south longer than we’ve thought. Therefore, we’ve decided to shift the track further south. The forecast landfall could take Pakhar within 100km east of Ho Chi Minh by tomorrow morning. It will then move further inland, bringing widespread rains across the region. It could weaken to a tropical depression tomorrow afternoon and pass within 200km east of Phnom Penh. Due to land interaction, Pakhar could dissipate altogether as early as Monday morning over Cambodia. Its remnants could continue bringing heavy rainfall in the region, however.

If you do live in Vietnam, we appreciate any reports or photos from your place (but please do it safely!). Always coordinate with the local authorities for possible evacuations and other official warnings for your community. I’ll have another update tomorrow morning. Our contributors here at Western Pacific Weather will continue giving you latest updates on Pakhar. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT