25 MARCH 2012 Western Pacific Weather Update


The monsoonal trough in the tropics is very active today with two apparent areas that need watching. The first and a more immediate threat is a region extending from the South China Sea towards Northern Luzon, this widespread area of convection is the child of a easterly wave interacting with the NE Monsoon coming south out of China. This collision of surface winds and separate air masses is creating a area of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms extending across the South China Sea.  Already in Manila over 50mm of rainfall has fallen in the past 24hrs prior to the rainfall intensity increasing, therefore expect those numbers to likely double as we go in to Monday before slowing moving west towards Vietnam as we go in to mid-week.  The image below is from T2K and has a good deal of information discussing this.

Meanwhile as shown in the graphic above another tropical wave is looming on the Philippine horizon, and should just arrive about the same time the system over the South China Sea starts to move west. Therefore unfortunately extensive rainfall is going to be likely across the philippines and much of Indo-china as we go in to this final week of March. Please take a look at the GFS model outlook to get a more comprehensive idea of this combination of systems.

Across Korea and Japan today a area of low pressure that brought an abundant of rain to the countries of Saturday is now starting to pull away and move off towards the pacific. Therefore fairer conditions will begin to set in on Monday with temperatures gradually building up to the high teens in Tokyo by mid-week.

Please check back on Monday for the newest video update and as always stay safe and have a great sunday. ~Meteorologist Robert Speta

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