Archive | March 26, 2012

Its Sakura (Cherry Blossom) Season and Spring is in the Air!

I hope you enjoy the back ground of the spring blossoms taken here in Tokyo in celebration of the spring season.

Below is a picture my son and I enjoying the blossoms, if you have any where you are please share!

Also here’s a shot of My wife and I!

26 MARCH 2012 Western Pacific Weather Update

The tropics today are kicking up with two areas of interest around the Philippines.  The first (Invest 96W) is west of the PI today and has gained some energy due to a combination of factors. One being the warm sea surface temperatures of the South China Sea the another is a collision of air masses due to the North East Monsoon pushing in out of China. JTWC  has upgraded the area now to a (LOW) potential of development stating.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO RECONSOLIDATE NEAR 9.8N
115.6E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A STRONG NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE IS
HELPING TO SPIN UP THE LLCC BY PROVIDING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, AND A 252242Z CORIOLIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
AREA IS NEARLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
ARE MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THIS
REGION IS A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

This same area has also been upgraded to a Minor TD by JMA, although this is only minor and the system is not being warned on.

Meanwhile another system is blowing up to the East of the Philippines, at this time little model development is picking up on this area and the potential for tropical development. Although it will influence the NE monsoon bringing even more rainfall to the Philippines by mid-week.

Looking North over Korea and Japan cold air is sinking in across the region due to a speeding Low pressure system moving away from Japan followed by a new Bubble of the Siberian High. Therefore snow will be hitting NW Japan on Tuesday but will taper off by evening. As the high continues to settle warm air will surge out of the tropics bringing much welcomed spring air by mid-week to much of Japan.

Therefore enjoy the weather if its good and get the umbrella out if it not, have a good Tuesday.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Philippines 3-Day Forecast | March 26, 2012

Scattered rains continue to fall across parts of the Philippines today. Rains continue to linger in Eastern Luzon brought about by the passage of a cold front. This same system brought 50 to 80mm of rain around Central and Southern Luzon yesterday. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pop up over the next 2 days but not expecting huge amounts except in Eastern Luzon and the Bicol Region. Already, places in Quezon have reported nearly 80mm of rain over the past 24 hours and that could continue for tomorrow.

Same scenario happening in Visayas although coverage is smaller and rains are more sporadic. Next chances of rain will arrive late tomorrow. A weak disturbance moving westward across the Philippine Sea is forecast to affect Eastern and Central Visayas tomorrow. As much as 100mm could fall in some places by Wednesday. Rains will then overspread into Luzon by Thursday.

Rains also being observed across Western and Central Mindanao today. Lesser chances of rain for this region for the next 2 days although we can’t rule out a thunderstorm forming, especially during the afternoon hours.

Forecast Graphic (NOT OFFICIAL!)

The LPA over the South China Sea (Invset 96W) remains weak although development is possible towards later this week. It is still near enough to produce rain showers especially in Palawan. Based on some computer models, if this system does develop, we could be looking at a weak tropical storm moving into Vietnam. Still lots of time though so we’ll continue watching and updating you for any changes. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT