26 MARCH 2012 Western Pacific Weather Update

The tropics today are kicking up with two areas of interest around the Philippines.  The first (Invest 96W) is west of the PI today and has gained some energy due to a combination of factors. One being the warm sea surface temperatures of the South China Sea the another is a collision of air masses due to the North East Monsoon pushing in out of China. JTWC  has upgraded the area now to a (LOW) potential of development stating.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO RECONSOLIDATE NEAR 9.8N
115.6E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A STRONG NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE IS
HELPING TO SPIN UP THE LLCC BY PROVIDING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, AND A 252242Z CORIOLIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
AREA IS NEARLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
ARE MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THIS
REGION IS A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

This same area has also been upgraded to a Minor TD by JMA, although this is only minor and the system is not being warned on.

Meanwhile another system is blowing up to the East of the Philippines, at this time little model development is picking up on this area and the potential for tropical development. Although it will influence the NE monsoon bringing even more rainfall to the Philippines by mid-week.

Looking North over Korea and Japan cold air is sinking in across the region due to a speeding Low pressure system moving away from Japan followed by a new Bubble of the Siberian High. Therefore snow will be hitting NW Japan on Tuesday but will taper off by evening. As the high continues to settle warm air will surge out of the tropics bringing much welcomed spring air by mid-week to much of Japan.

Therefore enjoy the weather if its good and get the umbrella out if it not, have a good Tuesday.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

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