Archive | March 28, 2012

28-29 MAR Tropical Depression & Western Pacific Weather Update

JMA TD WRNG

A new tropical depression is spinning near the Spartly Islands bringing heavy rains to the region with the threat of flooding across

much of Borneo, Philippines, Malaysia and eventually in to Vietnam as we go in to later this week. Over 100mm has been reported in some areas displaying the potential of the heavy weather. (Click here to see the most recent significant totals)

Also check out Francis Update earlier today, for a more in-depth look at Malaysia and the warnings occurring there.

Meanwhile the westerlies stay dry for the most part with the exception of a cruising low moving away from Japan that brought some thunderstorm activity to the country today. A new developing stormsystem will be moving out of Central China. This will eventual push towards the eastern coast by the end of the week.

Below is the latest Details from JMA on the TD

Issued at 10:10 UTC, 28 March 2012

<Analyses at 28/09 UTC>
Scale
Intensity
TD
Center position N9°20′(9.3°)
E112°50′(112.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 29/09 UTC>
Intensity
Center position of probability circle N9°20′(9.3°)
E112°30′(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

Invest 96w and SE Asia Weather Updates 28 Mac 2012

Currently we have a tropical low lingering in the South China Sea, Invest 96w as reported by Rob earlier (See HERE) has been stationary for the last couples of hour. The possibility to strengthen into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hour remains medium. Most of the model forecast that this area of low pressure will remain stationary before moving north west to the coast of Vietnam in the coming few days until next week. (Refer HERE for GFS model and HERE for NoGaps model). Meanwhile, the image from the Thailand Meteorological Department above indicating that there are several area of low pressure on both the land and the water.

The Malaysia Meteorological Department, in conjunction with Invest 96w has issued a Third Category Strong Wind and Rough Sea Warning  over the waters off Condore, Reef North & Layang-Layang with expected winds from 60kmph and sea waves above 4.5 metres. The warning remains until the 3rd of April 2012. A Second Category Strong Wind and Rough Sea Warning was issued over the waters off Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, East Johore, Sarawak, FT Labuan, Sabah (Interior, West Coast, Kudat), Tioman, Bunguran, Samui, Reef South & Palawan are expected to continue until Tuesday, 3rd April 2012. Strong West/Southwesterly Winds with speed up to 60kmph and sea waves of 4.5 metres is expected over the area.

And finally, overall in the region it will be a wet weather specifically over the Borneo Island we should see most of the area with showers and thunderstorm inclusive of Brunei while over in Peninsula Malaysia, scattered thunderstorm and isolated rain is expected in the central region to the southern region specifically the area of Kuala Lumpur, Southern Perak and Pahang, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca. Meanwhile in Singapore, the Singapore Weather Agency forecast morning and afternoon showers in most part of the country and fair weather across the area in the evening. Far to the east in the Philippine specifically the Southern Luzon, we have a system picking up but none of the agency has classified this system into any development. However, do expect some heavy rainfall over the area and also watch out for rough sea and strong winds over the coastal area.

That’s all from me right now. Have a good day and stay safe.

WestPac Wx SE Asia Casters ~Francis~