Tropical Storm Pakhar was last located approximately 620km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph gusting to 90kph. TS Pakhar is moving west northwestward at about 5kph. Due to the weak steering flow in the South China Sea, TS Pakhar is forecast to continue meandering over the ocean before making landfall into Central Vietnam by Sunday. Right now, conditions are marginally favorable for intensification.
Computer models are in good agreement and our forecast (map below) takes Pakhar near Nha Trang by Sunday afternoon as a strong Tropical Storm. As it moves inland, it will quickly lose strength and could dissipate as early as Monday over the Laos/Vietnam border.
Forecast for TS Pakhar (NOT OFFICIAL!); Satellite Image from NRLMRY
Graphic NOT OFFICIAL!
Rains will continue for much of Central and Southern Luzon for today and tomorrow. As much as 100mm of rain could fall by tomorrow, on top of 100 to 150mm reported today across parts of the region. Most affected will be the Bicol Region as the shear line extends through these area. Some showers could also develop north into Baguio and nearby provinces. Rain here will linger for another 2 days.
Rains also affecting parts of Visayas with flooding and overflowing rivers being reported on the news. We expect the coverage of these showers to slowly lessen through tomorrow. However, chances for afternoon thunderstorms will remain throughout and places that could get prolonged rains are vulnerable with flooding and landslides. Eastern Visayas could also see more rains this weekend as a batch of showers is forecast to arrive from the east.
Mindanao will have relatively quieter weather compared to Luzon and Visayas. However, we are seeing some isolated thunderstorm across the region. These rains should not last long although they do have the capability to drop large amounts of rain in a small time frame. Fortunately, there really are no large rain makers for the next few days except for these on and off showers.
We’ll have our next update tomorrow. Stay safe everyone!