Archive | March 30, 2012

Typhoon Pakhar Morning Update | March 31, 2012

Due to a number of sudden changes that occurred overnight, Typhoon Pakhar has lost much of its convection but still remains a typhoon per JTWC. The degradation of the storm could be attributed to numerous factors. Yesterday, I’ve brought the fact that some dry air is being entrained into the system. Furthermore, the wind shear in the region has increased to 10-15 knots. Another reason could be the diurnal minimum last night–which is common in most tropical cyclones.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nevertheless, we can see in the image above that the typhoon still has much of its structure. The center is still visible on the satellite and cooling cloud tops, especially on the southern periphery, are beginning to return. We still expect Pakhar to retain much of its organization and could even strengthen later today. Much of the forecast, though, remains unchanged. We are still forecasting a landfall tomorrow morning, east of Ho Chi Minh.

I’ll have another update later this afternoon. Please check back frequently for more updates from our numerous contributors.

-WxCaster PAT

 

Tropical Storm / Typhoon Pakhar Video Update 30-31 MAR 2012

Video by Meteorologist Robert Speta

Pakhar is continuing to strengthen today due to a combination of ripe conditions for development in the South China Sea. The video above is our Tropical Update for today on this storm and its approach

on the South Eastern Vietnam Coast. The storm is forecasted to strengthen but regardless of how strong the winds get at the center of Pakhar the rainfall will be

one of the main threats. The image to the left shows

the current rainfall per hour and up to 50mm in some locations, granted most of this is over water at this time it will be moving over land as we go in to the coming days. For an in-depth read on Pakrah please visit Pat’sAdonis update posted today.

Below is a video Taken on the 29th of  a Tornado ripping through Bacolod City, Negros in Visayas. 

The above video proves to us that Tornadoes do occur in the Philippines, even on a day to day basis the local storms can blow up strong enough conditions to produce Funnel Clouds, the picture to the below is a picture I took in Manila Bay during a regular afternoon. If you look closely a waterspout is visible just offshore.

Latest Warning from JTWC

Typhoon Pakhar Update | March 30, 2012

A quick update adding my own analysis and forecast for Typhoon Pakhar. For other posts regarding the typhoon, you can read the post of our newest member–Adonis!

Anyway, last location of Typhoon Pakhar was around 500km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds are around 120kph gusting to 150kph. It is moving westward at 5kph.

VIS Image from NRLMY

The image to the right shows the storm located just east of Vietnam over the South China Sea. We have pinpointed the location of the center on the image. Earlier today, the eye was partially visible but has since been covered by the central dense overcast. Last few frames of the satellite do suggest that the eye maybe trying to reform again. It is pretty well defined on the microwave instruments, however.

Typhoon Pakhar sort of leveled off in terms of intensification this afternoon. It could because of some dry air being entrained into the system. Despite that, the robust outflow, good divergence, and marginal sea surface temperatures should allow Pakhar to intensify more in the next 12-24 hours. It will be very interesting to see the diurnal cycle of the system overnight.

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

My forecast takes Pakhar into Vietnam by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time). Landfall point is forecast to be within 200km east of Ho Chi Minh. My track is based on the consensus of the latest computer guidance but is positioned north of JTWC and JMA’s forecast tracks. Before landfall, we expect Pakhar to attain a peak intensity of around 150kph sustained which is just below the the Category 2 threshold on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

After landfall, Pakhar should weaken considerably as it moves over Vietnam. It will continue moving northwestward and could dissipate as early as Monday afternoon over the Cambodia/Vietnam border.

My next update will be tomorrow morning. We have a dedicated group of people doing updates frequently so you can be assured of latest info and forecasts. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Barreling Through Ho Chi Minh City’s Eastern Coast

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Dangerous Weather Approaching Ho Chi Minh City, Alerts Up Along Coastal Community

Iloilo City, Philippines, 30 March 2012, (0602Z)–As the world woke up on this side of the Pacific yesterday, the prevailing ripe atmospheric conditions aided the slow but steady intensification phase of Tropical Depression “02W/PAKHAR” which later that morning, the mean winds has already been increasingly steady at 75 km/hr (40 kts) for the last 24 hrs it has been feeding on temperate waters off the highly tense and disputed “Spratlys archipelago,” a couple of kilometers West of Philippine Island of Palawan, dubbed, “Kalayaan Island Group.”

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has long been consistent on its forecast track that the building “Subtropical Ridge, ” a steering environment to the North of the system that could pose a potential for a Westerly track, but since the “Stationary Front” that has persisted along the Eastern coast of Luzon, Philippines since Saturday, 24 March 2012 and combined with the effects of a surging La Niña-enhanced Northeast Monsoon, a.k.a “Amihan” has paved the way for further development of Tropical Disturbance “96W,” based on record, one of the most “Tenacious” tropical system this side of the world has seen at this earnest.

Fig. 1.0 "A Colour Sat Imagery of the Western Pacific Region, depicting a developing Tropical Storm off the South China Sea. Image Credit: NOAA."

I do not speculate that “Climate Change” is the culprit as yet, as current weather systems that contribute to the persistent “La Niña Event,” has eventually weakened as per climatic variations provided for by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) the past 2-year cycle since last part of 2010 and through 2012.  Experts in Meteorology have somewhat confirmed and made a consensus that the “La Niña Event,” though weaker, has yet to be felt as to its ongoing influence to the Central Pacific Basin’s erratic weather patterns through the end of the Third Quarter of this year.

Hanoi Readies Its Citizenry, Warns Of Approaching Storm

The government of Viet Nam in Ha Noi has already issued an order for initial evacuation along the Eastern and Southern coastal communities of Da Nang and Mekong Delta as torrents of falls should be expected in the coming hours.  

Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” according to the National Centre for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHF), the system at the moment remains “Quasi-stationary,” precariously endangering the coast of Eastern edge of Ho Chi Minh City, where thousands of seafaring fisher folks ply the route to be cautioned on the approach of the first Tropical Cyclone to affect the region in the last 40 years before the month of April where storms are usually expected to form off the East China Sea.

Fig. 2.0 "JTWC TC Warnings issued at 00Z, 30 March 2012. Image Credit: JTWC."

Winds at the moment reach 100 km/hr and with higher gust, with barreling slow path of West to West-northwesterly track towards the coast.  Forecasters in the region have been quite surprised of the early onset of such Tropical system which normally starts mid-April on a normal year.

The Viet Nam Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has been reporting deteriorating weather conditions along the territorial waters around the Truong Sa, “Spratlys archipelago” and the coastal areas of Binh Thuan and Ninh Thuan.

Viet Nam Registered Ships Anchored Safely As Storm Approaches

Eight (8) offshore vessels from the coastal province of Khanh Hoa are being instructed to drop their anchors in the safety of Islets bordering with Malaysia and let the storm safely pass through later tomorrow.

The Viet Namese Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has also reported that close to 1,700 offshore vessels had been ordered to seek safety in neighboring Islets as the storm dangerously intensify and remain anchored until it has move past within the next 2 days.

Fig. 3.0 "Early stages of detection--NASA AIRS has been on the lookout since the system, 96W has moved past over the Philippine archipelago on 19-24 March 2012. It stalled for about 2-3 days off the highly tense, disputed territorial waters off the West Philippine Sea, a.k.a. South China Sea that borders with Palawan's Kalayaan Island Group. Image Credit: NASA."

Meantime, in addition to this broadcast, the latest update I have been proof-reading, the system, “02W/PAKHAR”  is now a full-pledge Strong Category 1 Typhoon, almost a Category 2 System, with winds reaching 150 km/hr (80 kts), and gusts of up to 175 km/hr (95 kts), heading towards the Southeastern coast of Ho Chi Minh City at a very slow pace, where torrential rains could produce flooding and coastal surges could bring coastal erosion.  Higher elevations could expect landslides as the result of continuous rainfall in a certain period of time.

With this development, it should be clear enough that the system has undergone rapid intensification for the last 6-12 hrs now, the JTWC has been issuing a severe Tropical Cyclone Warning along the coast of Viet Nam to be on highest alert for high surf generated by the incoming outer rain bands of now Strong Category 1 Typhoon “02W/PAKHAR,” ever dangerously close to the shores.

More updates as it becomes available.

With data from NOAA, NASA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, Typhoon2000.ph and NRL Mry.

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)