Archive | March 30, 2012

Typhoon Pakhar Morning Update | March 31, 2012

Due to a number of sudden changes that occurred overnight, Typhoon Pakhar has lost much of its convection but still remains a typhoon per JTWC. The degradation of the storm could be attributed to numerous factors. Yesterday, I’ve brought the fact that some dry air is being entrained into the system. Furthermore, the wind shear in the region has increased to 10-15 knots. Another reason could be the diurnal minimum last night–which is common in most tropical cyclones.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nevertheless, we can see in the image above that the typhoon still has much of its structure. The center is still visible on the satellite and cooling cloud tops, especially on the southern periphery, are beginning to return. We still expect Pakhar to retain much of its organization and could even strengthen later today. Much of the forecast, though, remains unchanged. We are still forecasting a landfall tomorrow morning, east of Ho Chi Minh.

I’ll have another update later this afternoon. Please check back frequently for more updates from our numerous contributors.

-WxCaster PAT

 

Tropical Storm / Typhoon Pakhar Video Update 30-31 MAR 2012

Video by Meteorologist Robert Speta

Pakhar is continuing to strengthen today due to a combination of ripe conditions for development in the South China Sea. The video above is our Tropical Update for today on this storm and its approach

on the South Eastern Vietnam Coast. The storm is forecasted to strengthen but regardless of how strong the winds get at the center of Pakhar the rainfall will be

one of the main threats. The image to the left shows

the current rainfall per hour and up to 50mm in some locations, granted most of this is over water at this time it will be moving over land as we go in to the coming days. For an in-depth read on Pakrah please visit Pat’sAdonis update posted today.

Below is a video Taken on the 29th of  a Tornado ripping through Bacolod City, Negros in Visayas. 

The above video proves to us that Tornadoes do occur in the Philippines, even on a day to day basis the local storms can blow up strong enough conditions to produce Funnel Clouds, the picture to the below is a picture I took in Manila Bay during a regular afternoon. If you look closely a waterspout is visible just offshore.

Latest Warning from JTWC

Typhoon Pakhar Update | March 30, 2012

A quick update adding my own analysis and forecast for Typhoon Pakhar. For other posts regarding the typhoon, you can read the post of our newest member–Adonis!

Anyway, last location of Typhoon Pakhar was around 500km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds are around 120kph gusting to 150kph. It is moving westward at 5kph.

VIS Image from NRLMY

The image to the right shows the storm located just east of Vietnam over the South China Sea. We have pinpointed the location of the center on the image. Earlier today, the eye was partially visible but has since been covered by the central dense overcast. Last few frames of the satellite do suggest that the eye maybe trying to reform again. It is pretty well defined on the microwave instruments, however.

Typhoon Pakhar sort of leveled off in terms of intensification this afternoon. It could because of some dry air being entrained into the system. Despite that, the robust outflow, good divergence, and marginal sea surface temperatures should allow Pakhar to intensify more in the next 12-24 hours. It will be very interesting to see the diurnal cycle of the system overnight.

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

My forecast takes Pakhar into Vietnam by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time). Landfall point is forecast to be within 200km east of Ho Chi Minh. My track is based on the consensus of the latest computer guidance but is positioned north of JTWC and JMA’s forecast tracks. Before landfall, we expect Pakhar to attain a peak intensity of around 150kph sustained which is just below the the Category 2 threshold on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

After landfall, Pakhar should weaken considerably as it moves over Vietnam. It will continue moving northwestward and could dissipate as early as Monday afternoon over the Cambodia/Vietnam border.

My next update will be tomorrow morning. We have a dedicated group of people doing updates frequently so you can be assured of latest info and forecasts. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT