Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Barreling Through Ho Chi Minh City’s Eastern Coast

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Dangerous Weather Approaching Ho Chi Minh City, Alerts Up Along Coastal Community

Iloilo City, Philippines, 30 March 2012, (0602Z)–As the world woke up on this side of the Pacific yesterday, the prevailing ripe atmospheric conditions aided the slow but steady intensification phase of Tropical Depression “02W/PAKHAR” which later that morning, the mean winds has already been increasingly steady at 75 km/hr (40 kts) for the last 24 hrs it has been feeding on temperate waters off the highly tense and disputed “Spratlys archipelago,” a couple of kilometers West of Philippine Island of Palawan, dubbed, “Kalayaan Island Group.”

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has long been consistent on its forecast track that the building “Subtropical Ridge, ” a steering environment to the North of the system that could pose a potential for a Westerly track, but since the “Stationary Front” that has persisted along the Eastern coast of Luzon, Philippines since Saturday, 24 March 2012 and combined with the effects of a surging La Niña-enhanced Northeast Monsoon, a.k.a “Amihan” has paved the way for further development of Tropical Disturbance “96W,” based on record, one of the most “Tenacious” tropical system this side of the world has seen at this earnest.

Fig. 1.0 "A Colour Sat Imagery of the Western Pacific Region, depicting a developing Tropical Storm off the South China Sea. Image Credit: NOAA."

I do not speculate that “Climate Change” is the culprit as yet, as current weather systems that contribute to the persistent “La Niña Event,” has eventually weakened as per climatic variations provided for by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) the past 2-year cycle since last part of 2010 and through 2012.  Experts in Meteorology have somewhat confirmed and made a consensus that the “La Niña Event,” though weaker, has yet to be felt as to its ongoing influence to the Central Pacific Basin’s erratic weather patterns through the end of the Third Quarter of this year.

Hanoi Readies Its Citizenry, Warns Of Approaching Storm

The government of Viet Nam in Ha Noi has already issued an order for initial evacuation along the Eastern and Southern coastal communities of Da Nang and Mekong Delta as torrents of falls should be expected in the coming hours.  

Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” according to the National Centre for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHF), the system at the moment remains “Quasi-stationary,” precariously endangering the coast of Eastern edge of Ho Chi Minh City, where thousands of seafaring fisher folks ply the route to be cautioned on the approach of the first Tropical Cyclone to affect the region in the last 40 years before the month of April where storms are usually expected to form off the East China Sea.

Fig. 2.0 "JTWC TC Warnings issued at 00Z, 30 March 2012. Image Credit: JTWC."

Winds at the moment reach 100 km/hr and with higher gust, with barreling slow path of West to West-northwesterly track towards the coast.  Forecasters in the region have been quite surprised of the early onset of such Tropical system which normally starts mid-April on a normal year.

The Viet Nam Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has been reporting deteriorating weather conditions along the territorial waters around the Truong Sa, “Spratlys archipelago” and the coastal areas of Binh Thuan and Ninh Thuan.

Viet Nam Registered Ships Anchored Safely As Storm Approaches

Eight (8) offshore vessels from the coastal province of Khanh Hoa are being instructed to drop their anchors in the safety of Islets bordering with Malaysia and let the storm safely pass through later tomorrow.

The Viet Namese Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has also reported that close to 1,700 offshore vessels had been ordered to seek safety in neighboring Islets as the storm dangerously intensify and remain anchored until it has move past within the next 2 days.

Fig. 3.0 "Early stages of detection--NASA AIRS has been on the lookout since the system, 96W has moved past over the Philippine archipelago on 19-24 March 2012. It stalled for about 2-3 days off the highly tense, disputed territorial waters off the West Philippine Sea, a.k.a. South China Sea that borders with Palawan's Kalayaan Island Group. Image Credit: NASA."

Meantime, in addition to this broadcast, the latest update I have been proof-reading, the system, “02W/PAKHAR”  is now a full-pledge Strong Category 1 Typhoon, almost a Category 2 System, with winds reaching 150 km/hr (80 kts), and gusts of up to 175 km/hr (95 kts), heading towards the Southeastern coast of Ho Chi Minh City at a very slow pace, where torrential rains could produce flooding and coastal surges could bring coastal erosion.  Higher elevations could expect landslides as the result of continuous rainfall in a certain period of time.

With this development, it should be clear enough that the system has undergone rapid intensification for the last 6-12 hrs now, the JTWC has been issuing a severe Tropical Cyclone Warning along the coast of Viet Nam to be on highest alert for high surf generated by the incoming outer rain bands of now Strong Category 1 Typhoon “02W/PAKHAR,” ever dangerously close to the shores.

More updates as it becomes available.

With data from NOAA, NASA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, Typhoon2000.ph and NRL Mry.

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

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About Weatherguy Adonis

"All worked up for the study of meteorology whenever, wherever across the world. You name it, I have some of it! LOL!" ;D

10 Responses to “Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Barreling Through Ho Chi Minh City’s Eastern Coast”

  1. it’s funny why PAGASA still claiming that the raining brought by a tail-end of a cold front by this day. Based on JMA analysis chart and CIMSS winds analysis, it’s not really the case. I do agree with your insights regarding this, most especially when you mentioned that we can’t blame it to “climate change” yet, since we need to back it up with data and long range of study before releasing that big statement. Thanks for this 🙂

  2. Nice to have you here man!! Welcome to the team…

  3. Weatherguy Adonis Reply March 30, 2012 at 8:19 am

    “yealp, I couldn’t agree more! anyhow, we should remain vigilant and at all times, keep in mind that the power to change the world lies in us all.

    I maybe correct at some point but we have to perceive better approaches in understanding our world. it is our future that’s at stake now.

    I do appreciate all your positive comments! keep it here at Westpacificweather.com for more analysis.

    cheers!” =)

  4. Yes 🙂 I guess that’s my purpose as well in taking up an Atmospheric Science degree 🙂 .. “the power to change the world lies in us all…” sounds prolific but true 😉

  5. welcome to site adonis! looking forward to your posts…!

    • Weatherguy Adonis Reply March 31, 2012 at 1:28 am

      “thank you guys for a warm welcome! I will make sure that everything will be set according to plan. we’ll work altogether to reach our goals and aspirations.

      all the best for our Team! God bless!” ;D

  6. Weatherguy Adonis Reply March 30, 2012 at 11:39 am

    “true indeed, Yel. it’s great that you’ve come across with a perfect place of learning. keep it up and help change the world by helping out!

    Godspeed!” ;D

  7. I agree with everyone else, I have been pushing this site for nearly 2 years now and I am now ecstatic to see where it is going. This typhoon season may be an active one and I’m sure this site will be at the forefront in the forecast, information and lessons.

    • Weatherguy Adonis Reply March 31, 2012 at 1:27 am

      “yealp, copy that Rob! since the La Niña has weakened significantly across the Central Pacific Basin, it’s effects are still evidence by above-than-average rainfall across the Asia-Pacific Region. No doubt that this year’s Pacific Typhoon Season will be far more devastating, especially the flooding events that should follow.

      all eyes are set to the East of us here in the Philippines for more tropical development.” ;D

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