Due to a number of sudden changes that occurred overnight, Typhoon Pakhar has lost much of its convection but still remains a typhoon per JTWC. The degradation of the storm could be attributed to numerous factors. Yesterday, I’ve brought the fact that some dry air is being entrained into the system. Furthermore, the wind shear in the region has increased to 10-15 knots. Another reason could be the diurnal minimum last night–which is common in most tropical cyclones.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Nevertheless, we can see in the image above that the typhoon still has much of its structure. The center is still visible on the satellite and cooling cloud tops, especially on the southern periphery, are beginning to return. We still expect Pakhar to retain much of its organization and could even strengthen later today. Much of the forecast, though, remains unchanged. We are still forecasting a landfall tomorrow morning, east of Ho Chi Minh.
I’ll have another update later this afternoon. Please check back frequently for more updates from our numerous contributors.