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Typhoon Pakhar Update | March 30, 2012

A quick update adding my own analysis and forecast for Typhoon Pakhar. For other posts regarding the typhoon, you can read the post of our newest member–Adonis!

Anyway, last location of Typhoon Pakhar was around 500km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds are around 120kph gusting to 150kph. It is moving westward at 5kph.

VIS Image from NRLMY

The image to the right shows the storm located just east of Vietnam over the South China Sea. We have pinpointed the location of the center on the image. Earlier today, the eye was partially visible but has since been covered by the central dense overcast. Last few frames of the satellite do suggest that the eye maybe trying to reform again. It is pretty well defined on the microwave instruments, however.

Typhoon Pakhar sort of leveled off in terms of intensification this afternoon. It could because of some dry air being entrained into the system. Despite that, the robust outflow, good divergence, and marginal sea surface temperatures should allow Pakhar to intensify more in the next 12-24 hours. It will be very interesting to see the diurnal cycle of the system overnight.

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

My forecast takes Pakhar into Vietnam by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time). Landfall point is forecast to be within 200km east of Ho Chi Minh. My track is based on the consensus of the latest computer guidance but is positioned north of JTWC and JMA’s forecast tracks. Before landfall, we expect Pakhar to attain a peak intensity of around 150kph sustained which is just below the the Category 2 threshold on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

After landfall, Pakhar should weaken considerably as it moves over Vietnam. It will continue moving northwestward and could dissipate as early as Monday afternoon over the Cambodia/Vietnam border.

My next update will be tomorrow morning. We have a dedicated group of people doing updates frequently so you can be assured of latest info and forecasts. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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