Tropical Storm Pakhar Afternoon Update | March 31, 2012

Video By Meteorologist Robert Speta

Tropical Storm Pakhar was last located approximately 350km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110kph gusting to 140kph (1-min). It continues to move westward at around 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The infra-red image above shows Pakhar slowly approaching the southeastern coast of Vietnam. We’ve highlighted a few areas of interest in that image. First, we’ve noted the return of very cold (around -70c) cloud tops near the center. There has also been an increase of convection in the eastern periphery of the storm since the past 6 hours. This increase in activity could very well be attributed to the slight dip in the wind near Pakhar (of around 10knots or so). A series of microwave image (not shown here) in the past 6 hours also show that the inner structure is still intact and that inflow is still strong despite the presence of dry air south of Pakhar.

Furthermore, the image above also suggests that rainclouds are beginning to move into Southern Vietnam. As much as 100mm of rain could fall here in the next 12 hours alone. Since the radar coverage here in Southern Vietnam is almost nil, we’re only relying on satellite image and airport observations for reports (if you happen to live within the path of Pakhar, we appreciate any ground reports you can give us: just leave a comment or email).

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Since Pakhar weakened, it has stayed south longer than we’ve thought. Therefore, we’ve decided to shift the track further south. The forecast landfall could take Pakhar within 100km east of Ho Chi Minh by tomorrow morning. It will then move further inland, bringing widespread rains across the region. It could weaken to a tropical depression tomorrow afternoon and pass within 200km east of Phnom Penh. Due to land interaction, Pakhar could dissipate altogether as early as Monday morning over Cambodia. Its remnants could continue bringing heavy rainfall in the region, however.

If you do live in Vietnam, we appreciate any reports or photos from your place (but please do it safely!). Always coordinate with the local authorities for possible evacuations and other official warnings for your community. I’ll have another update tomorrow morning. Our contributors here at Western Pacific Weather will continue giving you latest updates on Pakhar. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT