Archive | April, 2012

30 APRIL 2012 Western Pacific Weather Update

A low pressure area is pushing over Japan bringing rain with it, in the next 72hrs parts of Japan could see over 200mm of rainfall. Meanwhile the start of the rainy season is showing face in China. More rain is expected in and around Hong Kong. Lastly the tropics are relativly quite today after the rough weekend with the LPA moving on shore in Southern Mindanao. Now it is bones of its previous cluster of clouds, but still rain is coming out of it. If anyone has any pictures reports or videos from this storm or any storm in the westpac were always open to seeing them.

Also if you have any suggestions or comments please put them in the comment box below.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Lastly here is something new, Its still in its testing phase but it is a Forecast for 01 May at 00Z.

A mixed Bag of weather as Yellow Sand Blows out of the Gobi and Storms erupt in South East China

The China Meteorological Administration issued various warnings on Friday ranging from Yellow sand in the North to Severe Thunderstorms in the south and as time came to pass all of these events rolled out according to plan.

 Starting in the North Yellow sand blew out of the sand dunes in the Gobi (picture right) and spread east covering portions of North East China under a layer of dust before moving on the Korean Peninsula where it reduced visibilities below 2km at times. Now going in to Sunday night and Monday the dust is still carrying East and can be clearly seen on Visible satellite imagery. Below is a picture from NEXSAT, (links can be found at the westernpacificweather.com Links page) if one looks closely over the Sea of Japan you can see a shady milky color, this is a tell tale sign of Yellow Sand over the Ocean.

 Yellows sands effects can sometimes be subtle, an example would be producing a nice sunset with shades of reds and oranges, or even getting ones cloth dusty if left hanging outside to dry.

On the other hand it also has the potential to kill, people with respiratory issues must always be prepared and even stay in doors when the forecast has this pointing towards your area. Plus driving can be dangerous, yellow sand can reduce visibilities worst than fog if thick enough. That’s why always check slow down if you see a wall of this coming towards you.

 

South East China, Hong Kong and Taiwan saw an abundant amount of rainfall this weekend, and still the forecast is shaping up to bring even more rainfall to areas West of Shanghai. Some of these areas could see up to 150-200mm in the next 72hrs (image left) as the frontal area that lingers over the region slowly develops. It will begin to move East as a low pressure system to the southern Japanese islands where more rainfall will occur specially in southern Kyushu where 200mm is on the cards. Then by Monday night in to Tuesday morning the rains will reach Tokyo first light then getting heavier through the day as this new low clips just to the south of Honshu Tuesday.

The pictures below are from the CMA of some of the storms that struck Liaoning Province where a Yellow Thunderstorm alert was issued by CMA before reports of Urban flooding flowed in. 

 

That’s is all for right now though, If you wish to get information on 97W please read FRANCIS and ADONIS update earlier today on the storm. Plus be sure to check out the westernpacificweather.com Satellite surface analysis.

 

If you have any questions as well please post them in the comment box below.

 

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Heavy rain over Hong Kong, developing Invest 97W and WestPac Wx SE Asia Weather Update 29 Apr 2012

Good day everyone and today yet another South East Asia updates from me at Westernpacificweather.com here. Two attention point to look on today’s weather here in the western pacific. The first we would be looking at the heavy thunderstorm over Hong Kong due to an area of low pressure with heavy rain amounted to more than 150mm has been reported there by fellow friends James Reynolds a.k.a TyphoonFury. Next, Invest 97W has now been officially recognized as a Tropical Depression by JMA. But before moving further, the following is the Weather Maps produced by the Thailand Meteorological Department earlier today.

At least six to seven area of low pressure can be observed from the above weather maps and this definitely means alot of rainfall occurring all over the place in the region. Also, we do have a stationary front located in Mainland China just north of Taiwan and surely it has dropped ample amount of rainfall over Taiwan and it is currently moving east ward over to Japan.

A look at the Isohyet Chart for the past 24 hour from Hong Kong Observatory, we can see that a very heavy amount of precipitation has been dump over Hong Kong with several area receiving rainfall between 150mm to 200mm namely Tuen Mun and Tsuen Wan, cities like Yuen Long, Sha Tin and Sai Kung also received amount of rainfall over 100mm for the past 24 hour and unofficial report saying that flash flood has occurred in some low lying area in Hong Kong. At press, weather is reported to be fair with most of the area are receiving precipitation below 10mm for the past hour.


Meanwhile over the Philippine, Invest 97w as per mentioned in my previous post, if able to sustain the high pressure windshear for the next 48 to 36 hour it would be regaining its strength and early today, it is reported that the system is reorganizing and is moving fast towards Mindanao. Satellite imagery shows an impressive convective banding over the system with winds near the centre of the system was about 10 – 20 knots. Detailed information has been posted by Adonis earlier today HERE. More information will be uploaded from time to time if the system is going to develop into a Tropical Cyclone.

Back to the South East Asia, below are the official weather forecast for the next 3 days released by the Malaysia Meteorological Department for the Peninsula Malaysia and also the Borneo states. Generally, most of the states will experienced isolated thunderstorms and isolated rain in the afternoon with estimated temperature of 24 Celsius to 32 Celsius.


Over in Singapore, the Singapore Weather Agency forecast that for the coming 3 days, please do expect some late morning and afternoon thundery showers with a low of 25 Celsius and a high of 32 Celsius.

Finally over in Brunei, the Brunei Weather Agency forecast Thunder showers and Showers occurring over the state for the next three days with temperature ranging from 25 Celsius to 32 Celsius.

Before I wrap up my updates, I would like to make a note to all my viewer that my post was being copied over to the following website without my consensus. I am not going to argue with the owner of the site as previously few of the authors here experienced the same thing and if you, the viewer have surf the site, you would be surprised that most of the post here is being published over there mostly without the authors consensus.

http://cyclonewarningcenter.com/84/
Above is the link to one of my post that is “moved” to the site there. Nevertheless, my intention is just to remind all our viewers that the every piece of the news posted here is the original work of our author namely Robert Speta, rpweather (Pat), Weatherguy Adonis, and me Francis Chuah. So do remember that whenever you similar post elsewhere, please be notified that the post was originally written here. Thank you.

That’s all from me right now. The next similar update will be on the 2nd of May. But do stay tune from time to time updates on the severe weather happening now in the Western Pacific Basin. Stay safe and have a good day.

WestPac Wx SE Asia Casters ~Francis~

BREAKING: 29 Apr 2012 Tropical Update on Developing Tropical Low 97W Off Southeastern Mindanao

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Invest 97W Sprung To Life, Torrential Rainfall Threatens Eastern Mindanao

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–For the last five (5) days in a row of intense heat associated with the prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” just to the Northeast of the Philippine Sea, with temperatures soaring high as 38C in most of Northern Luzon Provinces, our tenacious little Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern edge of Palau Island, Federated Island of Micronesia has come back to life after almost defeated by the drier conditions in the past four (4) days or so. Now that Shearing levels in the Upper atmosphere remains low, and Oceanographic values remain favourable, the system has finally entered into a new phase of life as moisture-laden clouds made a push towards the West, in a line of active thunderstorms flaring across the near-Equatorial region has led to the enhanced development of Invest 97W for the last 24 hrs.

I am made to believe that the system has a lease of life since its conception between 23 April and 24 April 2012, where most of the experts on this field of meteorology would agree on the point of warming oceans breed tenacious tropical systems that are capable of traversing vast distances longer that perceived before.

In my recent post at http://www.theboplive.net, “Warm oceans are breeding grounds of intense storm systems, and those regions where precipitable amounts of water vapor are most candidate for rapid intensification, which most scientists and meteorologists agree as main cause of intensification phase rate ranging from within five (5)  to fifteen (15%) boost potential and right conditions as regards to Wind shear and terrain variables that affects the lifespan of storms and the way they are expected to behave.”

Fig. 1.0 "MTSAT IR Imagery indicating how large the lump of clouds wrapping around Tropical Disturbance 97W as it intensifies further along the Southeastern edge of Mindanao coast. Image Courtesy: RAMMB/CIRA."


Again, I am bound to follow more than an impression, but on a generational scale, indeed, these Tropical Cyclones gather immense energy derived from the “Heat,” from the world’s oceans, and other atmospheric values such as Wind shear, Upper-level winds and prevailing weather systems should correspond to seasonal wind systems that would tend to support a stable region for tropical development.
Meantime, yesterday’s severe weather across Hong Kong territory associated with a “Trough of Low,” has now developed into a “Frontal system,” just North of Basco, Batanes and Taiwan Island. The said weather system should induce some showers extending from Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur and as far as Northeast towards the Ryukus Island Group in Southern tip of Japan, to include Naha in Okinawa.

Current Position:

As of 1832Z (0232AM-PHL/MAL), Tropical Disturbance “97W” has been located at 6.0N-129.5E, approximately 470 km East-southeast of Davao City, Philippines. Winds have reached 40 km/hr near the center, barometric readings at 1006 hPa at the moment, and is tracking Northwest at 15 km/hr.

Fig. 2.0 "An MTSAT IR Imagery I got from our colleague in Germany, Mike Adcock of the US Air Force depicting the increasingly huge banding that has been happening overnight within the system. You could immediately tell that this system could potentially have greater impacts to land mass especially terrain along the coast and hinterlands and some possibility of landslides happening and flooding. Image Credit: MTSAT IR, Mike Adcock."

It is forecast to move inland along the Eastern coast of Mindanao later evening today, Sunday, 29 April 2012 through Monday, 30 April 2012 if it maintains acceleration due West-northwest. Flooding potentials of 150 mm of rainfall totals in 24-hr period upon landfall could be expected in this system as “Orographic lift,” should bring enhanced cloudiness along the coastal regions of Southern and Eastern Mindanao as of posting in line with the banding wrapping near the system’s core, LLCC. Its outer bands have already reached the Northern edges of Mindanao and more convective rain band are slowly creeping inland which covers most of Central Mindanao by dawn breaking today.

NASA’s TRMM has been indicating a hefty 67-68 mm rainfall accumulation in a 24-hr period pegged for the system at the moment while at sea, and other sources of information I got was that the purples are evidently becoming more broader as it feeds on the relatively high sea-surface temperature as part of the “Diurnal,” processes a Tropical system are expected to undergo.

Flash floods and possible landslides especially along danger zones and mountain slopes are vulnerable during a storm so people along these areas should be warned of the dangers of staying in there, and would be wise enough to prepare and follow more than instinct but better judgment by staying on alert at all times. We will never know who’s lives would be spared from another tragedy such as last year’s worst–Tropical Storm “27W/Washi,” locally known as “Sendong,” that left vast tracts of lands and cities awash by torrential rains and the deluge that followed through, killing 1,300 people and sending thousands into shelters, and damages into almost Php2.2 Billions in infrastructure and agriculture. This time, who knows who’s life would be saved, it could be yours.

Fig. 3.0 "Another closer look at the system spawning some sporadic thunderstorms across the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of Mindanao. Image Credit: RAMMB/CIRA."

I am especially proud that our weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been following the development since last night, and continues to do so in keeping up with the latest of the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island,USA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo, Japan has yet to issue warnings on the system.

Hope all folks in Mindanao got the news, adequate, fresh and right!

More details as the system progresses further.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, HKO, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)