Archive | April 1, 2012

TS Pakhar Morning Update | April 2, 2012

Tropical Storm Pakhar is now crossing into Cambodia, weakening along the way. The storm center was last located approximately 210km east northeast of Phnom Penh or about 130km north of Ho Chi Minh City, moving northwestward at 15kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65kph gusting to 85kph.

Reports throughout the night range from 50 to 150mm of accumulated rainfall. Ho Chi Minh Airport also reported a gust of around 95kph during the height of Pakhar’s passage last night. We also appreciate ground reports from you guys out there in Vietnam. As Pakhar moves further inland, rain is forecast to continue for another 12 hours for much of Vietnam. The accompanying IR Image shows the core of Pakhar continuing to weaken.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Pakhar is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Depression later this afternoon before totally dissipating tonight or early tomorrow (Tuesday). As much as 50 to 150mm of rain could still fall in Vietnam and Cambodia as well before moving north and affecting Laos. TS Pakhar’s remnants will then continue dropping scattered showers throughout the week.

We’ll have another update later this afternoon. Continue bringing those storm reports but please stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT


Tropical Storm Pakhar 01 APR Evening Video Update

Tropical storm Pakhar is now bringing extensive rains to South Eastern Vietnam. Tropical storm force wind gust have also been reported in Ho Chi Minh City  (image right) during the evening hours.  The following comments were posted out of the city and neighboring locations earlier today.

1) Ho Chi Minh City apartment on 26th floor. No power, lifts are not working because too windy in the shaft, windows are leaking and starting to pop out. Down below the street is flooded and blocked by cars and bikes. Motorbikes with people on are being blown over. Crazy weather. very scary.

2) I’m sitting in it right now in HCMC as of 6:50pm. No power, pretty solid rain and a bit of wind with some big gusts. A friend said it blew an open window off the 33rd floor of his apartment building. I’m sure a lot of the city is flooded as usual when it rains but I’m not going out anyway.

3) Am in Vung Tau now at 8.10pm and I feel that it is all over here except for the rain, it is only light rain now but every now and then get a heavy to moderate shower, the wind has just about completely stopped, The wind was not as bad as I thought it would be no where near as bad as the Typhoon in 2006. Anyway I feel that tomorrow we may get some more light to moderate rain but that wont be a problem,,

Thank you for the reports everyone, it is a vital and useful aspect of this site and for anyone in the area please keep the information coming. The video update above is a synopsis of the storm and where it will go next. To read in depth text updates please click the following links.

Adonis Update and in depth analysis

Pats Pakhar landfall analysis on Facebook

WestPacMET Discussion Group

BREAKING: Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Crashes Ashore, Cyclonic Weather In Progress Along Southeastern Viet Nam Coast Today

By:  Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Long Wait Now Over As Storm Makes Into Land Earlier Than Expected

Iloilo City, Philippines, 01 April 2012, (0830Z)–Finally, Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” made it to land.  The long wait is now over for most of the region weary of the situation so critical for millions of people in Viet Nam who were quite uncertain of their fate as a Tropical system threatened their way of life for the longest time.

The Viet Nam Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has been issuing maritime warnings in the advance of the tropical system for more than 3 days now since the storm has been at very slow pace, resulting to thousands of fishing vessels and maritime activities to a standstill.

Sea-going vessels were being ordered to stay away from the range of the storm, which other ships near the Spratlys archipelago to this day are still anchored due to the cyclonic weather that continues to persist along the East China Sea, closest to the center of where the chaotic seas never fail to persist.

Fig. 1.0 "Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR lost its steam considerably over the past 12 hrs as it interacts with land mass before making landfall at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL). Image Courtesy: Digital-typhoon."

Land Interaction, Weak Inflow 

Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” regained some of its intensity yesterday after reaching a “Diurnal Maximum,” which corresponds to a 24-hour cycle life of a tropical system and especially affected by the easing essential “Inflow” from the North of the South China Sea as the Northeast Monsoon, a.k.a “Amihan,” in the Northern Region of Luzon, Philippines have provided such replenishment of favourable “Upper-level” push, sending much-needed moisture and momentum the past few days of its existence.

“Outflow” from the Southwestern quadrant of the system has been struggling to provide adequate moisture to fuel the increasingly exhausted source of energy–heat and humidity derived from the “Low-level winds,” that fairly provide constraint as regards to hostile 37-55 km/hr (20-30 kt) “Shearing environment,” which could prove fatal to tropical cyclones.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its analysis last night that the central convection that provide adequate banding within its LLCC was fair enough to support the theory that maintaining strength reaching 110 km/hr (60 kt) which average winds was about 101 km/hr (55 kt) along the Southwestern periphery of “02W/PAKHAR,” and “Atmospheric Pressure,” reaching to 988 hPa as indicated on their 1500Z issued bulletin last night, 31 March 2012.

fig. 2.0 "Vis Sat Imagery indicate the Eyewall of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR as shown crashes into Southern coast of Vung Tau, sending cyclonic weather along the storm's immediate path. Image Courtesy: CIRA."

Despite this, and the relatively low “Shearing environment,”our system has continually lost steam, finally succumbed to lower OHC and the lack of good outflow and the existence of a blocking Subtropical Ridge to the Northeast of it, just over mainland China was a conclusive determinant for a true West to West-northwest track towards Southern Viet Nam–this sealed the fate of our system as it starts to dissipate over land as of posting.
Other Weather Systems Along Asia-Pacific

Since the La Niña-enhanced Easterlies have replaced the retreating “Monsoonal flow,” the source of such energy was snatched from our tropical system off the East China Sea two days ago, thus the weakening state of Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” and the increasingly hostile oceanographic conditions, which I was referring to as the increasingly cooler “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC) along the coasts of Southern Viet Nam extending to the Northeast to the regions of Hainan Island, China.

Fig. 3.0 "I made this Impression using the tools I have gathered depicting the interfering weather systems across Western Pacific Region that contributed to the demise of the former Category 1 Typhoon on 30 March 2012--a record for this year's Pacific Typhoon Season. Image Courtesy: NOAA."

Also, a developing return of a moderate surge of the “Northeast Monsoon” was evident along the Northernmost edges of Northern Taiwan yesterday, this should be closely monitored especially in my country, the Philippines, where the “Wetter-than-normal” conditions generated widespread flooding across the archipelago due to the prevailing influence of the easing “La Niña Event.”

Well-defined LLCC Before Making Landfall

Such ill-effects effected a simmering heat generated temperature along the immediate path of the tropical system, thus a weakening trend has caused a significant loss of ambient conditions for further development.  This episode has wrought a disastrous result on the system’s life cycle from which adequate energy source, right variations of atmospheric values and warmer “Ocean Heat Content,” (OHC) are recipe for a perfect environment for tropical cyclones to undergo “Explosive Deepening” (ED) or otherwise known as “Rapid Intensification” (RI).

In the case of our tropical system at bar, there have been lacking variables that has degraded its size in meteorological aspect, which I would refer to its central pressure, diameter, wind intensity and the most important of all is the existence of warm sea surface temperature.

Accelerating Pace Towards Coast, Hits Land

An observation prior to its making landfall today, 01 April 2012, I have been observing that the system has jogged a bit faster on a Westerly to West-northwest trajectory towards Vung Tau, less than 30 km East-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City at around 2032z (432AM-PHL).

The JTWC pegged the system before making landfall at 75 km/hr (40 kt) sustained winds, and gusts reaching 101 km/hr (55 kt), with Central Pressure of 988 hPa, heading generally West at 11 km/hr. 

The latest data I have come acrossed this afternoon, at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL) and 0632z (0232PM-PHL), as evidenced by Vis Sat loop, a well-defined “Eye,” was evident and a “Central Dense Overcast,” where the intense winds along and heaviest rains are present was clearly seen wrapping the “Eyewall,” crashed into shore along the Southeastern coast of Viet Nam near Vung Tau.

Fig. 4.0 "A regional representation to clearly show the underlying factors that accelerated the landfall time frame of 02W/PAKHAR, indeed a formidable tropical system that lasted since the last 2.3 weeks as former Tropical Disturbance 96W on 17 March 2012. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

Immediately after the advancing Western Quadrant of the system moved past the coast, the ferocity of the winds interacts with land mass, which ultimately cuts the main source of moisture and heat derived from the Sea, and “Land interaction,” would mean winds abruptly makes “Friction” with terrain and “Drier Air Mass,” predominantly present on land, which could also overwhelm the river capacity, and pose a critical threat along the River basins, especially the heavily silted Mekong River system that could result to massive landslides and flash flooding event, not to mention the high surf conditions that could obliterate the coastal communities especially in those highly vulnerable infrastructures that tend to be swept away by strong sea currents and rising tidal surges associated with a “Storm Surge,” or abnormal rising sea levels during an approaching storm along the low-lying coast.
More details later tonight. If you are in Viet Nam and has invaluable data about the storm, please send us your comments and thoughts.  We appreciate it but stay safe and keep dry! =)

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, NRL Mry and

(Note: If you have queries, email me at or through–>



Tropical Storm Pakhar Landfall Update | April 1, 2012

Tropical Storm Pakhar is now moving inland, east of Ho Chi Minh. It made landfal a little more than an hour ago. It is now located approximately 70km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City and is moving west northwestward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 75kph gusting to 100kph.


The microwave image above, taken by the SSMI Satellite, perfectly shows the core of Pakhar making landfall along the southeastern coast of Vietnam. For a 40-kt typhoon, the microwave representation above is actually very impressive, especially the eyewall structure. If you’ve watched Rob’s video update earlier, he talked about the possibility of slight intensification just before making landfall and it looks like that’s what we’re seeing with Pakhar.

Ho Chi Minh Airport has been reporting light to moderate rain for the past 4 hours now. Furthermore, a recent report states that wind gusts of up to 55kph are already being felt around the city. Elsewhere in Southern Vietnam, rain reports are already ranging from 50 to 100mm.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Rain will continue for another 12 to 24 hours for Southern Vietnam and Cambodia. The visible satellite image above shows the coverage of Pakhar and the extent of its rainbands. It is forecast to continue moving west northwestward, making its closest pass of Ho Chi Minh in 1 to 2 hours. It will then start turning more to the northwest, crossing into Cambodia by dawn. TS Pakhar is forecast to pass within 200km east of Phnom Penh. It will then rapidly weaken to a Tropical Depression by Monday morning and total dissipation is expected later Monday afternoon.

There could be as much as 250mm of rain by tomorrow, especially in mountainous areas. As we have said yesterday, radar coverage in this part of Vietnam is very poor so we are only relying on airport observations and ground reports. If you happen to be within the path of Pakhar, we appreciate any report we get, although we discourage taking pics or videos for your safety. We’ll have round the clock updates by numerous contributors in this site. Stay safe everyone!

-WxCaster PAT