Archive | April 11, 2012

North Korea Rocket Launch Forecast / 12 April 2012

 

 

North Korea’s Rocket in Tongchang-ri is fueled and ready to go for a launch sometime this week. Weather conditions continue to improve hear leading to the likely hood this the rocket would take off on Thursday to Saturday sometime as Sunday and Monday a frontal

system will start to work through bring low clouds and rain showers. Both conditions unfavorable for a rocket launch.

If the rocket launches with no humor error then Thursday and Friday would be the best days to do so.

If you have any comments please post them in the comment box below. Input and analysis from everyone is always encouraged.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

TSUNAMI WATCH Cancelled over the Indian Ocean Region;

Manila (Philippines) 11 April 2012 – An earthquake struck off coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, specifically it’s about 434 km Southwest of Northern Sumatra. The earthquake struck 4:38 PM Indonesia local time. The said earthquake reached a Magnitude 8.9 but later on it was lowered by the USGS to Magnitude 8.6.

With this amount of force released to the grounds, different national agencies including PTWC have issued a Tsunami Watch all over the Indian Ocean. This event was taken seriously by different countries all over the Indian Ocean: Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Thailand, Maldives and other countries in the east of African Continent.

(Reuters Agency) India – officials in the Andaman islands in India have evacuated a few thousand people to higher ground as the islands prepare for tsunami waves up to 3.9 meters.”There could be high waves of 1.5 metres at Port Blair and 3.9 metres at Campbell Bay,” said Prabhakar Rao, the official in charge of the disaster control room at Port Blair, the main town on the islands. “We have evacuated people from low lying areas of Campbell Bay islands and we have also alerted them as there is a reportthat high waves may hit Indira Point area,” south Andaman region police superintendent S.B.S. Tyagi said.

(Aljazeera) Thailand – Thai authorities have shut the international airport on the southern tourist island of Phuket, Six provinces along the Andaman coast were issued a tsunami warning following the initial quake off Aceh and people has started evacuating on higher grounds

(Aljazeera) Sri Lanka – reporting from Sri Lanka, says the acting media minister has stated that  tourists in hotels along the coastal belt have been moved to safer ground following renewed warnings of a tsunami for the Indian Ocean.

(Aljazeera) Indonesia – People from coastal areas in Indonesia have been evacuated. There are no reports of damages or casualties.

Three hours after the initial quake it was still unclear whether a tsunami had been generated. A geophysicist from the PTWC stated that a gauge closest to the epicenter of the quake off the northern coast of Sumatra recorded a peak of about a meter. A bulletin issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center on 10:14 UTC stated that a tsunami was generated and may have been destructive along some coasts already. However, BBC reported that the quake was unlikely to generate a tidal wave. Indonesian authorities have also issued a statement saying that the probability of occurrence of a tsunami is low.

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER

——————-  —– ——  —–  —————  —–

KO TAPHAO NOI TH      7.8N  98.4E  1143Z   0.05M /  0.2FT  06MIN

ENGGANO ID            5.3S 102.3E  1104Z   0.12M /  0.4FT  04MIN

TRINCONMALEE LK       8.6N  81.2E  1129Z   0.06M /  0.2FT  16MIN

TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  1044Z   0.22M /  0.7FT  14MIN

COCOS ISLAND AU      12.1S  96.9E  1102Z   0.08M /  0.3FT  18MIN

SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN

MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN

DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN

2004 Earthquake and 2012 Earthquake Scenario

December 26, 2004. A 9.1 Earthquake struck almost same area, which generated a monster wave that killed 200,000 people. Now another huge earthquake struck with a Magnitude of 8.6, different countries fear for a possible scenario that might happen. After several hours, PTWC has lifted all watches in the region.
A possible explanation for this is that the “Boxing Day” Tsunami, which was triggered on December 26, 2004, was generated by a subduction fault undersea. The sudden movement causes the wave to be in its chaos form.

 

April 11, 2012 Earthquake’s movement is strike slip. Meaning the movement of the fault are nearly vertical. This may cause a minimal waves not destructive as the subduction movement.

Although waves still can reach a meter.

BREAKING: Massive 8.7 Temblor Hits Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami In Progress

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Panic-struck People Across Asia As Massive 8.7 Mb Earthquake Hits Northern Sumatra, Sparks Evacuation

Iloilo City, Philippines, 11 April 2012, (0951Z)–There was another huge Temblor that has hit the already Earthquake and Tsunami stricken Banda Aceh, in Sumatra, Indonesia back in 26 December 2004, “Boxing Day,” geologic event.  The United States Geological Survey (USGS), has issued a preliminary report on this as 8.9 Mb but later it was confirmed that it has been lowered to 8.7 Mb, nevertheless, it is a major one!

The epicenter was about 434 km Southwest of Northern Sumatra, just off Banda Aceh in Indonesia, it struck the region, 33 km beneath the surface–it means the “Subduction Zone,” involved in huge “Rupture,” it could reach 300 kms long underneath the Ocean floor.  Experts have been sounding the alarm for an ensuing Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami is in effect along the immediate coast of Sumatra, Indonesia particularly under the gun as the Tectonic Plates moving forth ditched closer to “Horizontal” motion, according to Garry Gibson, a Geologist based in Australia, CNN in its reports as this even is in progress within the next 24 hrs.

The Earthquake has struck at around 0839Z, between 2N-92.5E, and widespread damage could be expected in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, the closest to the epicenter of today’s huge Temblor.  It has a depth of 33 km beneath the surface, considered very shallow.  A lot of people have been evacuating into higher ground after authorities in Sumatra after the strong tremor has been observed.

There were also unconfirmed reports that in Phuket, Pha Nhang in Thailand, the local authorities are expediting evacuations as they believe the Tsunami waves could reach 4.0 m in height.  Since the Earthquake has already past, the growing concerns are about the ensuing Tsunami that could have been generated out of this gigantic geological event. Critical areas could have been already hit several times by the waves as of posting and it’s getting dark now.

Fig. 1.0 "The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Hawaii, USA has issued this graph pertaining to a Tsunami Watch in effect over the Indian Ocean. Image Courtesy: PTWC."

The PTWC has issued a Tsunami Watch,” across Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Australia, Myanmar, Thailand, Maldives, United Kingdom, Malaysia, Mauritius, Reunion, Seychelles, Pakistan, Somalia, Oman, Madagascar, Iran, Uae, Yemen, Comores, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Mozambique, Kenya, Crozet Islands, Kerguelen Islands, South Africa, Singapore.  These areas are to closely monitor the rise and fall of sea levels within the next crucial 30 minutes and the forthcoming hours after the preliminary Earthquake has been felt.  Tremors will continue to shake the region as the ground tries to settle down within the next week or so.

Fig. 2.0 "People went outside the buildings in Malaysia as a strong tremor was being felt in Northern regions of the country as the massive 8.7 Mb Temblor has hit Northern Sumatra off the Indian Ocean. Image Courtesy: all over the net I guess."

Japan’s NHK World has been monitoring the development of this latest seismic upheavals.  Our resident meteorologist, Robert Speta has been reporting live on NHK World after Newsline, as I post this article right now, the weather could also be a significant factor as regards to rescue efforts ongoing along the coast of Sumatran Islands especially in cut-off regions in Simeulue Island, in Sumatra, Indonesia, which unconfirmed reports of a 6.0 m surge of Tsunamis was reported, as heavy rainfall could trigger landslips and flooding that could severely affect the already volatile situation in the area.

Update 1.0:  Francis Chuah, our affiliate author based in Malaysia has been reporting that his sister has been feeling the effects of another huge 8.2 Mb Aftershock, and it was strongly felt across the region at the moment.  Mr. Chuah was the one who gave first insights through his sister based in Northern part of Malaysia late this afternoon, same time with me here in the Philippines.

Fig. 3.0 "The first BIG Jolt that has struck off the Southwestern coast of Banda Aceh. Image Courtesy: USGS."

USGS reports of the huge Aftershock to be near 615 km South-southwest of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia, 0.773N-92.452E, epicentered at 16.4 km beneath the surface, which places this one very shallow. In ChennaiIndia has been shutting its ports in the advance of the incoming Tsunami arrival there.

Fig. 4.0 "Another huge aftershock has hit more South-southwest of the previous 8.6 Mb Temblor. Image Courtesy: USGS."

Reports of 60 cm in height of Tsunami waves has been arriving in Aceh, 80 cm in Meulaboh, all in Sumatran coast in Indonesia.  There has been information also of waters receding back at 10.0 m in Meulaboh.

More details coming in as it becomes available.

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! Stay safe and stay away from the coast, seek higher ground if you are under the PTWC’s Tsunami Watch.

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)