Archive | April 18, 2012

Australia Tropical Video Update 18-19 April

The LOW in the Northern Territory remains weak and is tracking towards moderate vertical wind shear and drier air. Due to those reasons it should remain weak until at least Friday night.

At this stage the global computer models are suggestive of a more favourable environment in the Timor Sea starting Saturday morning and continuing on into Sunday. Therefore the LOW has some developmental potential on Saturday, however we still don’t expect a cyclone out of it.

Longer term, there is no definitive guidance on movement with some models washing the LOW out by the weekend, others move the system west over Timor and Indonesia, while others have the system drifting south and hitting the North Kimberley coastline.

At this stage no models are developing this system into a tropical cyclone, however the system will need to be watched closely if it can survive into Saturday as the conditions become more favourable (at least temporarily). Full details in the video.

Video from our partners at OZCYCLONECHASERS

WestPac Wx SE Asia Weather Updates 18 April 2012

Another great day for some updates in the weather across the South East Asia region. As we can see from the above image, much of the area in the South East Asia is currently having heavy precipitation due to the sea breeze effects especially the Peninsula Malaysia and the Borneo Island. But the main focus for this update will be the heavy rainfall occurring over the Northern Thailand and also the low area that is currently bombarding Hong Kong (See rob’s video update earlier for more information).

The image on the side is the Isohyet map of rainfall accumulation for Thailand on the 17 April 2012. It is a cumulative rainfall for the duration of 24 hour. We can see here that for the past 24 hour the Northern Thailand has received much amount of precipitation. Information obtained from WMO shows that several area in Thailand received rainfall between 30mm to 60mm over the past 24 hour. Leoi Agromet received rainfall of 63.4mm, Ranong 51.1mm and Phuket airport recorded an amount of rainfall of 61.5mm. Additional information from Thailand Meteorology Department indicates that other area in the state also receive plenty amount of rainfall i.e Wichian Buri (35.5mm), Sakon Nakhon Agromet (38.2mm) and Trang Airport (32.8mm). Good news is with this amount of heavy rainfall, it has yet to cause any threats of flooding. The threat of mass flooding similar to last year is no where to be seen as this particular moment.

Meanwhile over in Hong Kong, heavy rainfall still affecting the area include some territory of the Republic of China. Xinyi recorded an amount of rainfall of 60.4mm while ShangChuanDao (71.9mm) and YangJiang (80.3mm). The above mentioned rainfall amount was obtained from the WMO. The heavy precipitation occurring over this region is due to a low that is currently affecting the coastal region of Hong Kong and China. Both NoGaps and GFS model forecast that this rough weather will remain in the region until the end of the week. Fair weather should began to get back to the region beginning early of next week.

Further to the South, in the Peninsula Malaysia, the amount of rainfall received has shown decreases compare to several days ago. The northern region states, which was bombarded with heavy amount of rainfall just few days ago (refer to my post on the 16 April), has been receiving just a little amount of scattered rainfall. However, things are different in the East Coast and Southern Peninsula Malaysia. The Isohyet map dated 17 April 2012 (yesterday) indicates that several area (coloured zone) has received rainfall amounted up to 100mm for the past 24 hour. And over in the Borneo Island, weather has been clear for the past 24 hour except with some scattered thunder shower in several area resulting rainfall amounted between 10mm to 30mm for the past 24 hour. As far as concern, both NoGaps and GFS model are forecasting fair weather over the Peninsula Malaysia, Singapore and the Borneo Island for the coming few days but do expect isolated and scattered rain in the region.

This is in line with both Singaore and Brunei weather agency forecast that scattered rain shower is expected for the coming 3 days expecially in the late morning and early afternoon.

And finally, over the PI, hot weather has been surrounding the state with a high temperature of 39 Celcius being recorded in certain parts of PI. Over the Northern Luzon, it has been a very hot weather. Meanwhile over the South, heavy rains is being reported in some area with most area are cloudy but temperature remains high. For further in depth weather analysis in the PI, please do stay tuned in the site for Pat’s Philippines 3-Day Forecast tomorrow.

That’s all for me today. If you have any comments or suggestion please feel free to post on the comment box below. Stay safe and have a good day everyone.


WestPac Wx SE Asia Casters ~Francis~