The LOW in the Northern Territory remains weak and is tracking towards moderate vertical wind shear and drier air. Due to those reasons it should remain weak until at least Friday night.
At this stage the global computer models are suggestive of a more favourable environment in the Timor Sea starting Saturday morning and continuing on into Sunday. Therefore the LOW has some developmental potential on Saturday, however we still don’t expect a cyclone out of it.
Longer term, there is no definitive guidance on movement with some models washing the LOW out by the weekend, others move the system west over Timor and Indonesia, while others have the system drifting south and hitting the North Kimberley coastline.
At this stage no models are developing this system into a tropical cyclone, however the system will need to be watched closely if it can survive into Saturday as the conditions become more favourable (at least temporarily). Full details in the video.
Video from our partners at OZCYCLONECHASERS