Archive | April, 2012

Philippines 3-Day Forecast | April 28, 2012

Forecast Graphic (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Main areas we’re watching right now are some rains across Taiwan and extreme Northern Luzon due to a developing front. Further south, Invest 97W is slowly approaching Mindanao, and actually blossoming along the way. The rest of the Philippines remains mostly quiet and hot.

Rains up north are mainly confined in Taiwan, Batanes Islands, and parts of Ilocos Norte and Cagayan. These are brief and localized rain showers that are not expected to bring significant amounts of rain. These clouds should slowly move to the northeast tonight. However, localized thunderstorms could remain until tomorrow and could form and drift south into the Cordilleras and even Central Luzon. The next few days will be mostly quiet with no major rain maker in the forecast. As has been the case these past few weeks, expect temperatures to remain in the mid and upper 30s during the midday with small chances for thunderstorm development in the afternoon.

Same goes for Visayas although rain showers could form by Monday night into Tuesday as Invest 97W is forecast to affect the region by that time. Depending on the trends tomorrow, coverage may not be that widespread and rainfall amounts may not even exceed 50mm. Still, light rains are a welcome respite in this heat.

Mindanao is expected to have more rains from 97W in the next 2 days. Showers could move in as early as tomorrow with Eastern and Southern Mindanao getting the brunt. There could be around 50 to 100mm of rain through Tuesday. Clearer weather is expected by the middle and latter part of the week.

IR Image from NOAA

As it stands right now, Invest 97W still has a low chance of development. However, we are seeing some blossoming of convection around the center in the past 6 hours. While it does not really indicate cyclonic development just yet, the recent activity does warrant our attention especially that it is now nearing Mindanao.

Stay right here at Western Pacific Weather for the last update on Invest 97W and all things tropical. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

27 April 2012 Western Pacific Weather Video Update

Warm air in Korea and Japan will be accompanied by some yellow sand blowing out of the Gobi desert this weekend. This will be making for some pollution in the atmosphere but for picture takers it will be producing nice sunsets. The tropics have quited down for

friday too, Invest 97W has fallen apart as wind shear tore it apart from the North. This area still needs watching though as it could bring some rainshowers to the Southern Philippines by early next week.

South East china is seeing rain showers this weekend as unstable weather starts to erupt there. Hong Kong in particular could be expierencing strong thunderstorms carrying gusty winds with it.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Copyright @ www.westernpacificweather.com

WestPac Wx SE Asia Weather Update 26 Apr 2012

The weather in the South East Asia has been wet for several days as 2 low pressure was lingering around the region. Currently the two are of low pressure is further north in Northern Thailand and Vietnam bringing a heavy amount of heavy rain in the region but still, the South East Asia region has been affected partially by the system. Over on the Philippines, Invest 97w that kicks off with a strong potential as the first Tropical Cyclone for the PI is currently being tear off by the Ridge of High in the North East Philippines sea which has resulted the system to lost its organization and formation. Model forecast such as NoGaps and GFS has it nothing more than a low pressure as of now but if the system manage to survives for the next 24 to 48 hour, there is a possibility of regaining strength and end up as a tropical system.

Overall in Malaysia, weather will remains wet for the coming three days and earlier this week we did received news that flash flood occurs over the Borneo Island in Sabah, specifically the area of Lahad Datu. I have yet to receive consensus from a photo owner located in that area therefore I am not able to post the flood photo here for everyone. Following is the forecast of three days weather from the Malaysia Meteorological Department (MMD). I know is a bit lengthy but I will try my best to make a shorter version in my next updates.

Over in Singapore, the Singapore Weather Agency forecast that late morning and afternoon thunder showers for the next 3 days with temperature of 24 – 32 Degree Celsius.

And finally over Brunei, the Brunei Weather Agency also forecast similar wet weather over the states with Thunder showers and Showers occurring over the state for the next three days with temperature ranging from 25 Celsius to 32 Celsius.

That’s all from me right now, will have another similar updates on the 29th April (Sunday) if possible.
Stay safe and have a good day.

WestPac Wx SE Asia Casters ~Francis~