Archive | May, 2012

TCFA Issued for Invest 94W

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued by the JTWC in response to the continued development of Invest 94W. The system was last located approximately 280km southeast of Guam. Invest 94W has exhibited improvements on the circulation and convective activity near the center. Furthermore, the conditions remain favorable for further development. The TCFA means that there is a HIGH chance of a cyclone development within the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Rainclouds associated with Invest 94W will slowly overspread Guam and the rest of Marianas Islands today and into tomorrow. The overall forecast track of 94W, based on computer models, takes it to the northwest past the islands and a recurve to the north by the latter part of the week.

We’ll have more updates throughout the day so keep checking back.

-WxCaster PAT

9oW INVEST forms west of the Philippines

During what has been a very quiet tropical season so far, LPA 90W INVEST has formed west of the Philippines.

The latest NRL data is as follows:

LAT./Long.- 11.0N, 116.8E

254km NW of Puerto Princesa, Palawan, PHL

WInds- 15kts, gusting to 20kts.

Movement: WNW@10kph

The JTWC has yet to issue any advisories on this system. We will have the latest information when it becomes available.

Williams- 1413PST, 11 May, 2012

90W INVEST, 0130PST 11 May, 2012

19S starts its regeneration!

The tropical system designated at 19S by the JTWC and the NRL, and once declared dissipated, has started to regenerate, prompting the issuance of a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone formation Alert) by the JTWC, as of 2030UTC, 08 May, 2012. The TCFA text reads as follows:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 129.6E TO 11.6S 126.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081540Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS) FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ENHANCING POLEWARD VENTILATION. AS THE LLCC APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING VENTILATION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANTS OF TC 19S TO REGENERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS, BASED ON AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE DEEP BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Below is the TCFA graphic, and satellite image, as provided by the JTWC:

TCFA graphic and satellite photo as issued by the JTWC at 2030UTC, 08 May, 2012.

TCFA graphic and satellite photo as issued by the JTWC at 2030UTC, 08 May, 2012.

Whereas most of us, including the official forecasting agencies, thought this system was finished due to the shearing it underwent on 06-07 May, 2012, it would appear that regeneration is once again taking place. Interests in the southern hemisphere including those located in Indonesia and Australia.

Michael E. Williams, 0000UTC

Spring storm blows over Japan, Invest 98W in the PI and Malaysia Floods

03 May 2012, A rough day indeed across the Western Pacific,

Starting in Japan a deep area of low pressure is blowing through today where some locations are seeing upwards of 500mm of rainfall a 24hr period, this is bringing the risk of floods and also landslides on some of the steeper elevations here. Already JMA has issued “ground loosening rains” today for some areas West of Tokyo.  Not only rains though but gusty winds are also becoming a problem as over 50kph winds blow onshore along the East

Coast on Thursday.

For further warnings on this system go to JMA’s english site. 

To the south Invest 98W is spinning up bringing the threat of heavy rainfall the southern Phillippines, good news, this does not look like it will become organized, yet it still does bring the risk of floods and landslides.

Lastly we take a look at Malaysia, and flooding rains there, for a complete update though please click here.

This update is the opinions of westernpacificweather.com,  for official information please visit your local WMO approved Site.