Archive | June, 2012

TS Doksuri Afternoon Update June 29, 2012 (w/ Video)

Here is the accompanying Video Update (Please note that at the time the video was made, Hong Kong was still under Standby Signal No. 1. However, as of 5pm today, HKO has upgraded it into a Strong Wind Signal No. 3.).

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Tropical Storm Doksuri (Formerly Bagyong Dindo) continues to move closer towards the coast of Guangdong Province in China. The storm was last located approximately 210km southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 100kph. Doksuri is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm today, HKO has issued Strong Wind Signal No. 3 for Hong Kong. CMA, on the other hand, has issued a Yellow Alert for much of Guangdong Province. Always refer to your official weather agencies for the latest warnings and forecasts for your area!

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest image shows the low-level center has partly moved underneath the cloud overcast. Nevertheless, much of the convective activity remains sheared to the southwest of the storm. Doksuri is also enhancing the SW Monsoon bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for parts of Luzon and Visayas.

Radar image out of Hong Kong depict the heavy rains remain to the south at a distance of around 150km. For the latest radar images, click HERE (HKO Website).

Tropical Storm Doksuri is forecast to make landfall later tonight/early morning Saturday west of Hong Kong. The storm center will probably pass around 150km west of Hong Kong or within 100km west of Macau. Light rains should being affecting the said areas later tonight, along with gusty winds and rough waves. As Doksuri moves further inland tomorrow, expect rains to overspread much of Guangdong Province with precipitation likely affecting even Hainan. Due to the orientation of the convection, the heaviest of rains might miss Hong Kong although the city-state could still experience gusty winds of around 60kph according to HKO and occasional squally showers tonight and into tomorrow. Due to land interaction, Doksuri is forecast to dissipate as early as Sunday morning over Southern China.

-WxCaster PAT

TS Doksuri (Dindo) Noon Update and Video

Latest Video Update from Meteorologist Robert Speta:

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Tropical Storm Doksuri (Bagyong Dindo) continues to struggle maintaining organization as it battles increasing wind shear in the region. More importantly, the shear is displacing much of the convection to the southwest leading all the rainclouds to move into Luzon. TS Doksuri was last located approximately 180km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 95kph. JTWC, on the other hand, has actually downgraded the storm to a Tropical Depression citing the exposed center.

As of 11am today, PAGASA has raised Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, Batanes Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra, and Mt. Province. Signal #1 is in effect for La Union, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Pangasinan, and Nueva Ecija. These areas will continue to feel stormy conditions throughout the day with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rains. Using PAGASA’s NOAH project, many areas, especially in Cagayan, Kalinga/Apayao, and Ilocos Norte, are already reporting rainfall amounts of 40 to 60mm. Some weather stations are also reporting winds of 15 to 30kph. As the storm moves north of Luzon, expect strong winds to continue in the extreme northern parts of Luzon and including the group of islands dotted across Luzon Strait. Rains, meanwhile, will continue today and even into the evening hours. A total of 100 to even 150mm could fall, especially in mountainous areas.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image above shows the rainclouds associated with Doksuri is affecting large parts of Luzon. The exposed center is also highlighted above. JTWC has mentioned the possibility of a center relocation as the storm moves across Luzon. For now, even though there is no apparent landfall, worst conditions are, nevertheless, affecting the Philippines. Always listen to the local news for possible evacuations and other warnings and forecasts for your area.

We’ll continue to have updates throughout the day so please keep checking back. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Dindo) Afternoon Update June 27, 2012

Tropical Storm Doksuri (Local name ‘Bagyong Dindo’) continues to move across the Philippine Sea and is now nearing NE Luzon. The storm was last located approximately 500km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 600km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Doksuri is currently moving north northwestward at 20kph.

As of 11am today, Signal #2 has been raised by PAGASA for Cagayan and Isabela Provinces. Signal #1, meanwhile, is up for Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Sur, Mt.Province, Aurora, Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, and Quirino. For the upcoming 5pm update from PAGASA (which will have the latest Signal Warnings), please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

As seen on the image above, Doksuri’s low-level circulation center is fully exposed as it struggles to cope with the increase in wind shear in the area. This development is leading to the displacement of much of the convective activity of the storm to the western half. Therefore, the bright clouds from Doksuri are all displaced to the south and southwest. Since the rainclouds are really close to Luzon despite the center being more than 500km away, expect light rains to begin affecting parts of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon later tonight; that’s why the Signal Warnings have been put up by PAGASA. Aside from the rains, wave heights will increase as well and rough surf will be experienced all across the Eastern Seaboard of Luzon.

Most forecasts don’t show a landfall in Luzon. However, Doksuri will still pass very close to Sta. Ana, Cagayan tomorrow morning. It’s rainbands will also affects Northern and Eastern Luzon and could bring rainfall amounts of up to 150mm especially in mountainous areas. Doksuri will cross Luzon Strait and move into the South China Sea. We expect the storm to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday night or Saturday morning. Computer models continue to track Doksuri towards Hong Kong by Saturday although it remains to be seen how strong the system will be by that time.

We’ll have continuous updates about the storm so keep checking back here. Furthermore, be sure to watch the news and check on PAGASA as well for the latest and OFFICIAL warnings and forecasts for your area. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Guchol Timeline for Okinawa

This is the latest version of our Typhoon Timeline. Guchol is now 250km south of Okinawa and is starting to bring light to moderate rains across the islands (radar from JMA click HERE). Furthermore, sustained winds of 30 to 45kph and gusts of 50 to 70kph are starting to be recorded in the area as well. We have our latest Typhoon Timeline for Okinawa to give a sense of what conditions will be like in the next 12 hours. This forecast is NOT OFFICIAL and is taken from JMA and JTWC forecasts. Please continue to consult JMA (or Kadena Weather) for the latest official warnings and forecasts for your area.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Typhoon Timeline (NOT OFFICIAL!)

9pm JST: 120km southeast of Okinawa, 230km west of Daitojima. Sustained winds of 50 to 70kph possible for Okinawa; gusts of up to 120kph likely. Light to moderate rains continue to fall as well.
12am JST: 200km northeast of Okinawa, 180km northwest of Daitojima, 160km southeast of Amami. Tropical storm force winds continue for Okinawa although starting to weaken. TS-force sustained still possible for Daitojima with occasional typhoon-force gusts. Winds of 40 to 70kph starting for Amami.
3am JST: 140km east of Amami, 340km northeast of Okinawa, 250km north northwest of Daitojima. Tropical storm winds continue for Amami. Winds starting to weaken for Okinawa although occasional gusts of up to 80kph still possible. Winds starting to weaken for Daitojima as well although could still range from 60 to 100kph with gusts of up to 120kph.
6am JST: 240km northeast of Amami, 260km southeast of Kagoshima, 480km northeast of Okinawa, 390km north of Daitojima. Winds dying down for Okinawa. TS winds still likely for Amami and Daitojima. TS-force winds starting to be felt across southern and eastern portions of Kyushu.

Continue to visit us for the latest updates on Typhoon Guchol as well as on a developing cyclone in the South China Sea–TD 06W (Talim). Stay safe everyone!

-WxCaster PAT