Archive | June 4, 2012

Typhoon Mawar Updated Short-Term Forecast

Typhoon Mawar is now around 260km south of Okinawa. Light rains are already overspreading it and nearby islands. Furthermore, winds around Okinawa and Daito are now increasing with gusts also beginning to reach tropical-storm force. We have decided to update our Typhoon Timeline as Mawar moves closer to the area. For JMA’s radar, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite images show the system continuing to deteriorate with the eye, visible earlier, now gone. The system is also becoming less symmetric due to the continuous entrainment of dry air along with other factors. Nevertheless, Mawar is still a strong typhoon and will still bring tropcial-storm force winds in Okinawa. The major changes in our timeline is that we no longer expect Typhoon-force winds to affect Okinawa although Daito Islands should still expect strong typhoon winds of 120 to 150kph as Mawar moves within 100km of Daitojima. Worst conditions appear to start at 6am today and lasting throughout the day. Total rain accumulations are forecast to be 50 to 100mm although some areas could get as high as 150mm. This Typhoon Timeline is NOT OFFICIAL! You can refer to JMA for the latest OFFICIAL warnings and forecasts, DO NOT use our timeline for life and death decisions.

Typhoon Timeline:

6am JST: 200km southeast of Okinawa, 270km southwest of Daitojima. TS winds continue for Okinawa, TS-force winds also for Daito with typhoon-force gusts possible. Light to moderate rains continue to affect the region as well.
9am JST: 220km southeast of Okinawa, 160km west southwest of Okinawa. TS-force winds continue for Okinawa, Typhoon-force winds for Daito. Light to moderate rains possible with occasional squalls of heavy rain for both islands.
12pm JST: 280km east of Okinawa, 80km east of Daito. TS-force gusts for Okinawa while Typhoon-force winds of 120 to 150kph likely for Daito, higher gusts possible. Light to moderate rains continue for Okinawa, moderate to heavy rains possible for Daito.
3pm JST: 340km east northeast of Okinawa, 75km north northwest of Daito, 250km southeast of Amami. TS-force winds starting to back down for Okinawa, Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito, gusty winds begin for Amami could reach tropical storm-force. Light to moderate rains forĀ  Okinawa, Steady moderate rain for Daito, scattered showers for Amami.
6pm JST: 380km east northeast of Okinawa, 120km north of Daito, 260km southeast of Amami. Winds backing down in Okinawa as well as in Amami. Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito although starting to weaken as well. Rains ending in Okinawa although scattered showers are still possible. Light rains continue for Amami while moderate rains for Daito.

Keep checking back the site for continuous updates on this storm. You can also watch Rob’s latest video update posted 2 hours ago HERE. You can also share your observations and pictures through the comments below or email us, but please be safe while doing those observations/pics.

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Mawar Short-Term Forecast

As Typhoon Mawar inches closer to Okinawa and the surrounding Japanese Islands, we’ve decided to put up a ‘Typhoon Timeline’ to provide a brief idea on what the conditions would be like in the next 24hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Mawar is forecast to move within 250km of Okinawa tonight passing between Okinawa and the Daito Islands. The worst conditions are likely to occur between 3am and 3pm tomorrow. Winds of near typhoon-strength are possible for Okinawa while winds of up to 180kph could be felt in the Daito Islands. Check out our timeline below (NOT OFFICIAL! DO NOT USE FOR LIFE AND DEATH DECISIONS!)

9pm JST: 300km south southwest of Okinawa. Okinawa and nearby islands starting to feel TS-force winds (65kph or more). Rains begin for the region.
12am JST: 220km south of Okinawa. TS-force winds affecting the islands along with moderate rains
3am JST: 180km south southeast of Okinawa. TS-force sustained winds and Typhoon-force gusts possible in Okinawa (peak winds up to 160kph possible). Higher winds likely in Daito Islands (120kph or more). Heavy rain also likely.
6am JST: 180km southeast of Okinawa. TS-force sustained and Typhoon-force gusts continue for Okinawa. Typhoon-force sustained and gusts likely for Daito Islands (peak winds up to 180kph possible). Heavy rain continue for the islands. Mawar also leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
9am JST: 190km east southeast of Okinawa. TS-force sustained and Typhoon-force gusts continue for Okinawa. Typhoon-force sustained and gusts likely for Daito Islands (peak winds up to 180kph possible). Heavy rain continue for the islands.
12pm JST: 230km east of Okinawa, 120km west of Daito Islands. TS-Force winds continue with occasional typhoon-force gusts for Okinawa. Strong typhoon-force winds of up to 180kph possible for Daito Islands! Heavy rain continue in the area.
3pm JST: 270km east northeast of Okinawa, 130km northwest of Daito Islands, 200km southeast of Amami Island. TS-force winds continue for Okinawa although winds starting to weaken. Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito, while TS-Force sustained possible for Amami. Heavy rain possible for Okinawa and Amami, likely to continue for Daito.
6pm JST: 370km northeast of Okinawa, 170km north of Daito, 220km southeast of Amami. Winds starting to back down for Okinawa, TS-force gusts still likely. TS-force sustained with typhoon-force gusts likely for Daito, TS-force winds continue for Amami. Heavy rain continues for Amami and Daito, lighter rains for Okinawa.

For the OFFICIAL info on warnings and forecast especially for radar data in Okinawa, click HERE (JMA Website)

Please stay safe out there guys! If you can, please send us pictures or any observations whatsoever on Typhoon Mawar. Keep checking back the site for continuous updates on this storm as it nears Okinawa.

-WxCaster PAT