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Typhoon Mawar Updated Short-Term Forecast

Typhoon Mawar is now around 260km south of Okinawa. Light rains are already overspreading it and nearby islands. Furthermore, winds around Okinawa and Daito are now increasing with gusts also beginning to reach tropical-storm force. We have decided to update our Typhoon Timeline as Mawar moves closer to the area. For JMA’s radar, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite images show the system continuing to deteriorate with the eye, visible earlier, now gone. The system is also becoming less symmetric due to the continuous entrainment of dry air along with other factors. Nevertheless, Mawar is still a strong typhoon and will still bring tropcial-storm force winds in Okinawa. The major changes in our timeline is that we no longer expect Typhoon-force winds to affect Okinawa although Daito Islands should still expect strong typhoon winds of 120 to 150kph as Mawar moves within 100km of Daitojima. Worst conditions appear to start at 6am today and lasting throughout the day. Total rain accumulations are forecast to be 50 to 100mm although some areas could get as high as 150mm. This Typhoon Timeline is NOT OFFICIAL! You can refer to JMA for the latest OFFICIAL warnings and forecasts, DO NOT use our timeline for life and death decisions.

Typhoon Timeline:

6am JST: 200km southeast of Okinawa, 270km southwest of Daitojima. TS winds continue for Okinawa, TS-force winds also for Daito with typhoon-force gusts possible. Light to moderate rains continue to affect the region as well.
9am JST: 220km southeast of Okinawa, 160km west southwest of Okinawa. TS-force winds continue for Okinawa, Typhoon-force winds for Daito. Light to moderate rains possible with occasional squalls of heavy rain for both islands.
12pm JST: 280km east of Okinawa, 80km east of Daito. TS-force gusts for Okinawa while Typhoon-force winds of 120 to 150kph likely for Daito, higher gusts possible. Light to moderate rains continue for Okinawa, moderate to heavy rains possible for Daito.
3pm JST: 340km east northeast of Okinawa, 75km north northwest of Daito, 250km southeast of Amami. TS-force winds starting to back down for Okinawa, Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito, gusty winds begin for Amami could reach tropical storm-force. Light to moderate rains for  Okinawa, Steady moderate rain for Daito, scattered showers for Amami.
6pm JST: 380km east northeast of Okinawa, 120km north of Daito, 260km southeast of Amami. Winds backing down in Okinawa as well as in Amami. Typhoon-force winds continue for Daito although starting to weaken as well. Rains ending in Okinawa although scattered showers are still possible. Light rains continue for Amami while moderate rains for Daito.

Keep checking back the site for continuous updates on this storm. You can also watch Rob’s latest video update posted 2 hours ago HERE. You can also share your observations and pictures through the comments below or email us, but please be safe while doing those observations/pics.

-WxCaster PAT

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