Archive | June, 2012

Typhoon Guchol Timeline for Okinawa

This is the latest version of our Typhoon Timeline. Guchol is now 250km south of Okinawa and is starting to bring light to moderate rains across the islands (radar from JMA click HERE). Furthermore, sustained winds of 30 to 45kph and gusts of 50 to 70kph are starting to be recorded in the area as well. We have our latest Typhoon Timeline for Okinawa to give a sense of what conditions will be like in the next 12 hours. This forecast is NOT OFFICIAL and is taken from JMA and JTWC forecasts. Please continue to consult JMA (or Kadena Weather) for the latest official warnings and forecasts for your area.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Typhoon Timeline (NOT OFFICIAL!)

9pm JST: 120km southeast of Okinawa, 230km west of Daitojima. Sustained winds of 50 to 70kph possible for Okinawa; gusts of up to 120kph likely. Light to moderate rains continue to fall as well.
12am JST: 200km northeast of Okinawa, 180km northwest of Daitojima, 160km southeast of Amami. Tropical storm force winds continue for Okinawa although starting to weaken. TS-force sustained still possible for Daitojima with occasional typhoon-force gusts. Winds of 40 to 70kph starting for Amami.
3am JST: 140km east of Amami, 340km northeast of Okinawa, 250km north northwest of Daitojima. Tropical storm winds continue for Amami. Winds starting to weaken for Okinawa although occasional gusts of up to 80kph still possible. Winds starting to weaken for Daitojima as well although could still range from 60 to 100kph with gusts of up to 120kph.
6am JST: 240km northeast of Amami, 260km southeast of Kagoshima, 480km northeast of Okinawa, 390km north of Daitojima. Winds dying down for Okinawa. TS winds still likely for Amami and Daitojima. TS-force winds starting to be felt across southern and eastern portions of Kyushu.

Continue to visit us for the latest updates on Typhoon Guchol as well as on a developing cyclone in the South China Sea–TD 06W (Talim). Stay safe everyone!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Guchol (Butchoy) Afternoon Video Update

Typhoon Guchol (Bagyong Butchoy) continues to quickly intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. JTWC is now expecting it to become a super typhoon in 24 hours and is targeting Okinawa and the rest of Ryukyu Islands. Note this is NOT

OFFICIAL! Please go to JMA and PAGASA for the latest official warnings and forecasts. If you are in the path of Guchol, please prepare now especially in the Japanese Islands as you now have less than 48hours from seeing typhoon conditions.

Please note that the winds in the video are from JTWC which uses 1-min sustained, JMA has lower sustained winds because they are using 10-min winds.

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lD0Z0po_ss&feature=youtu.be”%5D

-WxCaster PAT

Rich Text Area Toolbar Bold (Ctrl + B) Italic (Ctrl + I) Strikethrough (Alt + Shift + D) Unordered list (Alt + Shift + U) Ordered list (Alt + Shift + O) Blockquote (Alt + Shift + Q) Align Left (Alt + Shift + L) Align Center (Alt + Shift + C) Align Right (Alt + Shift + R) Insert/edit link (Alt + Shift + A) Unlink (Alt + Shift + S) Insert More Tag (Alt + Shift + T) Proofread Writing Toggle fullscreen mode (Alt + Shift + G) Show/Hide Kitchen Sink (Alt + Shift + Z) YouTube Shortcode Format – Paragraph Paragraph ▼ Underline Align Full (Alt + Shift + J) Select text color ▼ Paste as Plain Text Paste from Word Remove formatting Insert custom character Outdent Indent Undo (Ctrl + Z) Redo (Ctrl + Y) Help (Alt + Shift + H) Typhoon Guchol (Bagyong Butchoy) continues to quickly intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. JTWC is now expecting it to become a super typhoon in 24 hours and is targeting Okinawa and the rest of Ryukyu Islands. Note this is NOT OFFICIAL! Please go to JMA and PAGASA for the latest official warnings and forecasts. If you are in the path of Guchol, please prepare now especially in the Japanese Islands as you now have less than 48hours from seeing typhoon conditions. Please note that the winds in the video are from JTWC which uses 1-min sustained, JMA has lower sustained winds because they are using 10-min winds. [youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lD0Z0po_ss&feature=youtu.be”%5D -WxCaster PAT Path : p

STS Guchol (Buchol) Afternoon Update June 15, 2012

[youtube_sc url=”http://youtu.be/DNXGYakAtFE”%5D

*Video Update by Caster Francis

Severe Tropical Storm Guchol is now beginning to make its turn around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm was last located approximately 630km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. From JMA’s latest warning, Guchol contains maximum sustained winds of 110kph with gusts of up to 155kph. It is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph. We should note that the JTWC has been classifying Guchol as a typhoon since last night, PAGASA on the other hand, maintain their Severe Tropical Storm classification as well.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Signal Warning #1 for Eastern Samar.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest infra-red satellite image continues to show a compact central dense overcast with strong convective activity in and around the center. The eye (which is visible on the microwave image) is still obscured on both VIS and IR Images. None of the rainbands are affecting Visayas right now and due to the small size of Guchol, we aren’t expecting any severe effects to the Philippines.

Continued intensification is likely due to the slight weakening in wind shear as well as the high ocean heat content across the Philippine Sea. JTWC has increased their peak intensity forecast and is now expecting Guchol to become a Category 3 typhoon by Monday. Likewise, PAGASA and JMA are also expecting Guchol to strengthen further and become a typhoon tonight or tomorrow (these two agencies are still classifying Guchol as a severe tropical storm).

As for the forecast tracks, we are seeing less shifts among computer models and forecasting agencies regarding Guchol’s track. Furthermore, the apparent weakening and turning of Guchol in the last 3 hours suggest that the subtropical ridge is starting to weaken which seems to be on track with the forecasts from yesterday. Looking at the JMA 5-day forecast track below, we can see that they are keeping Guchol off of Luzon with a distance of around 250 to 300km. Due to the compactness of this storm, we are not really expecting any severe effects from it except for occasional rains and gusty winds, along with rough waves, in the next 2 to 3 days. However, it is likely that Guchol will enhance the SW Monsoon so expect scattered rains to affect much of Luzon and Visayas this weekend.

JMA 5-Day Forecast Track

Guchol will then start turning to the north northeast by Monday and should start weakening by that time as well. Forecast tracks are now aiming towards Okinawa and residents there should expect conditions to start deteriorating by Monday afternoon. Worst conditions will be felt by early Tuesday morning. Typhoon force winds affecting Miyako Islands, Okinawa, and Amami is possible and people there should continue monitoring the developments, if not start to plan their preparations now.

Continue to check our site for more updates throughout today and tomorrow. Stay safe everyone!

-WxCaster PAT