Archive | August 14, 2012

BREAKING: Kai-Tak (Helen) Edges Closer to Luzon

The center of Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Bagyong Helen) appears to be located much farther south than earlier thought. The system is now located approximately 140km east of Ilagan, Isabela. Maximum sustained winds remain at 75kph with gusts of up to 110kph according to JMA. Kai-Tak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

For the 5pm Signal Warnings from PAGASA, please read our Update posted earlier today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Microwave imagery and radar fixes from PAGASA suggest that the center of Kai-Tak has moved under the bulk of strong convection. While most agencies are still forecasting Kai-Tak to turn abruptly to the northwest and avoid a landfall, latest data suggests that a landfall is likely. Barring any sudden shifts in movement, Kai-Tak/Helen could make landfall along the Cagayan/Isabela coast in 6 hours. Strong winds and heavy rain will batter these two provinces and parts of Northern Luzon as Kai-Tak moves closer. After (IF) making landfall, it will continue turning to the northwest moving towards Cagayan and possibly towards Kalinga/Apayao tomorrow morning. If you are in these areas, please continue monitoring the news for the latest information.


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-WxCaster PAT

TS Kai-Tak (Helen) Afternoon Update August 14, 2012

Latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA as of 5pm August 14, 2012

Signal #2: Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra, and Calayan, Babuyan, Batanes Groups of Islands

Signal #1: Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, Mt. Province, La Union and Ilocos Sur

Latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Bagyong Helen) as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The convection associated with the storm is alraedy impacting much of Northern and Central Luzon bringing rains of up to 100mm in some areas. Furthermore, inflow bands induced by Kai-Tak’s large circulation are also enhancing showers across Central Luzon including Manila. Unfortunately, rains will linger for much of Luzon in the next few days. Kai-Tak/Helen will continue to move west northwestward moving very near Cagayan tomorrow morning. While we still don’t think it’s center will make landfall, the bulk of convection will still impact Cagayan and nearby provinces bringing heavy rains, strong winds, and rough seas.

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Keep it here at Western Pacific Weather for the latest updates and forecasts for Kai-Tak. If you have any reports, images, and/or videos to share please email them to us at or at

-WxCaster PAT