The center of Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Bagyong Helen) appears to be located much farther south than earlier thought. The system is now located approximately 140km east of Ilagan, Isabela. Maximum sustained winds remain at 75kph with gusts of up to 110kph according to JMA. Kai-Tak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.
For the 5pm Signal Warnings from PAGASA, please read our Update posted earlier today.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Microwave imagery and radar fixes from PAGASA suggest that the center of Kai-Tak has moved under the bulk of strong convection. While most agencies are still forecasting Kai-Tak to turn abruptly to the northwest and avoid a landfall, latest data suggests that a landfall is likely. Barring any sudden shifts in movement, Kai-Tak/Helen could make landfall along the Cagayan/Isabela coast in 6 hours. Strong winds and heavy rain will batter these two provinces and parts of Northern Luzon as Kai-Tak moves closer. After (IF) making landfall, it will continue turning to the northwest moving towards Cagayan and possibly towards Kalinga/Apayao tomorrow morning. If you are in these areas, please continue monitoring the news for the latest information.