Archive | September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm/Typhoon Sanba (Karen) Afternoon Update September 12, 2012

Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Sanba (Bagyong Karen).

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The system has continued to move across the Philippine Sea intensifying along the way. In fact, JTWC has upgraded Sanba into a Typhoon noting the presence of an eye on satellite image. However, JMA is keeping the system at a weak Tropical Storm intensity resulting in a significant difference in wind analysis between the two agencies.

Microwave Image from NRLMRY

The microwave image you see above is taken by a satellite and represents the inner structure of Sanba, one that is hidden underneath the clouds (think of it as an x-ray). The eyewall is obviously well formed now and the eye continues to get better defined. Sanba continues to exhibit great organization with strong convective activity and excellent radial outflow.

Sanba has actually moved more to the west northwest in the past 24 hours and stayed left of the forecast tracks from yesterday. However, the consensus remains insistent on a track to the north towards Okinawa. We’ve explained in the video above about the fairly complex steering situation in the atmosphere and how it could impact the track of Sanba. If you are in Taiwan, Okinawa, and even into Kyushu and Shikoku, you should closely monitor the developments of Sanba as it could impact your weekend. After that, residents along South Korea should also monitor this system as long-range forecasts are putting it towards the Peninsula by early next week.

Again, while Sanba or Karen is currently not forecast to make landfall in the Philippines, expect more rains across Visayas and eventually into Luzon by tomorrow. Furthermore, the system will likely enhance the Southwest Monsoon resulting in more widespread rains for the country in the coming days.

Stay safe everyone!

-WxCaster PAT