Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (Lawin) Afternoon Update September 21, 2012

Latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin).

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2yRectecuQ”%5D

ADDENDUM: PAGASA has just issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Eastern Samar. The said province should expect breezy conditions accompanied by occasional rains throughout the next 24 hours. Mariners and fishermen should also avoid going out to sea as wave heights will steadily increase in the next few days.

The storm has slowed down as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It is also starting to get better organized and will continue to intensify in the next few days as conditions will remain favorable for development. No direct impacts are forecast just yet although Jelawat may start to enhance the Southwest Monsoon bringing scattered rains across Visayas in the next 24 to 48 hours.

TS Jelawat will continue to linger east of Visayas in the next two days perhaps becoming a typhoon by as early as tomorrow evening (Saturday) or Sunday morning. Lots of uncertainties still exist regarding with the track though and our video fully explains the differences between the computer models and forecast consensus from the official agencies.

The image below shows what the Canadian and European models are showing. Again, the solution from these two models are still of very low probability.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Unless that cyclone DOES develop near Guam, there is a stronger likelihood of Jelawat moving towards the northwest. With that said though, anyone from Visayas to Luzon to Taiwan to Okinawa and to Mainland Japan should continue closely monitoring the developments of Jelawat. Check back here for latest updates along with Video Updates from our Meteorologist Robert Speta. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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