Archive | September 22, 2012

Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (Lawin) Morning Update September 23, 2012

Tropical Storm Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) continues to intensify as it meanders across the Philippine Sea, still east of the Philippine Islands. The storm was last located approximately 380km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. According to the latest analysis from JMA, maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Jelawat is almost stationary although it has been drifting to the west in the past 12 hours

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has dropped Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for some reason Signal #1 is still in effect for Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Western Samar. These provinces will continue to see gusty winds of up to 60kph along with widespread rains of up to 100mm throughout today. Waves will be rough across the entire eastern seaboard so sea travel is not recommended.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the Central Dense Overcast is becoming more uniform surrounded by very strong convective activity. Both outflow channels continue to improve as well. In fact, a recent microwave image shows an eyewall beginning to form and Jelawat could intensify to a typhoon later this afternoon. Meanwhile, outer rain bands from Jelawat continue to affect parts of Visayas and Mindanao Areas have reported around 50mm of rain last night and more could fall in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Microwave Image from NRLMRY showing the eyewall almost complete and the system is only hours away from probably being upgraded to a typhoon.

Forecast tracks have shifted to the east now due to the improving agreement among computer models. ┬áMost agencies such as the JMA and the JTWC not think that the ridge that would form in China won’t be strong enough to really steer our system to the west. As you can see with the latest JMA forecast below, they are now bringing Jelawat generally to the north and could perhaps threaten either Taiwan or the Southern Japanese Islands next week.

JMA Forecast Track

Please keep it here for the latest updates on this system. Our meteorologist Robert Speta will continue to provide latest Video Updates on this system so watch out for those as well. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (Lawin) Afternoon Update September 22, 2012

Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) as it remains nearly stationary east of Visayas.

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The storm has maintained its strength for the past 12 hours although we continue to see improvements with regards to organization. It is still forecast to become a typhoon and could become a Category 4 by next week as being forecast by JTWC. Right now, Jelawat is beginning to impact the Philippines with its outer bands and moisture inflow bringing rainshowers across Bicol and Visayas regions. Areas here could receive as much as 300mm of rain in the next 3 days.

Forecast track remains murky as confidence in the computer model outputs are still low. The consensus, however, is still the same from yesterday and most official agencies are still expecting Jelawat to eventually move northward and then turn to the northwest. Anywhere from Visayas to Luzon to Taiwan to Japan should continue monitoring the developments from this system as it meanders in the Philippine Sea in the next few days.

Please be reminded that we are NOT and official weather agency. Always listen to PAGASA for the latest Signal Warnings and also to your local officials for any evacuations or alerts in your area. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT