Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (Lawin) Afternoon Update September 22, 2012

Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) as it remains nearly stationary east of Visayas.

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The storm has maintained its strength for the past 12 hours although we continue to see improvements with regards to organization. It is still forecast to become a typhoon and could become a Category 4 by next week as being forecast by JTWC. Right now, Jelawat is beginning to impact the Philippines with its outer bands and moisture inflow bringing rainshowers across Bicol and Visayas regions. Areas here could receive as much as 300mm of rain in the next 3 days.

Forecast track remains murky as confidence in the computer model outputs are still low. The consensus, however, is still the same from yesterday and most official agencies are still expecting Jelawat to eventually move northward and then turn to the northwest. Anywhere from Visayas to Luzon to Taiwan to Japan should continue monitoring the developments from this system as it meanders in the Philippine Sea in the next few days.

Please be reminded that we are NOT and official weather agency. Always listen to PAGASA for the latest Signal Warnings and also to your local officials for any evacuations or alerts in your area. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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