Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) Afternoon Update September 24, 2012

Here is our latest and in-depth Video Update on Typhoon Jelawat and also on Tropical Depression 19W near the Marianas Islands. It is a lengthy video so please bear with us as discuss in-detail these two systems. If you are only interested in one system, our update on Jelawat begins at the 0:09 mark while our update for the new Tropical Depression begins at around the 10:12 mark. Again, thank you for your patience!

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahNP6JTyZZI”%5D

IR Image from NRLMRY

Based on recent satellite images (above: infra-red image), it seems as if Typhoon Jelawat is nearing the end of the eyewall replacement cycle. The latest image also shows strong convective ring and the system, overall, is looking very symmetrical almost doughnut shaped which is very common in cyclones that have gone eyewall replacement cycle. Outer rain bands also continue to affect parts of the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas bringing rains of up to 50mm. Further to the south, Typhoon Jelawat is enhancing that Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing widespread heavy rains across Palawan, Western Visayas, and Western Mindanao. Some areas in Palawan and Zamboanga have actually reported nearly 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours and more could fall in the said regions in the next few days. In the next 2 to 3 days, those widespread Southwest Monsoonal rains will inch northward eventually reaching Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila.

Forecast Tracks for Jelawat continue to remain inconsistent as computer models continue to shift their tracks. The consensus being shown by the official weather agencies do agree that Jelawat will continue to move northward and turn to the northwest by Wednesday. For now, they’re not expecting the system to make landfall in Luzon. However, Jelawat could move near enough to bring strong winds and heavy rains across Northern Luzon by Thursday. Forecast from JMA is taking Jelawat near Taiwan by Friday but not really expected to make landfall in the island. Instead, most weather bureaus are taking Jelawat to the northeast and could perhaps threaten the Southern Japanese Islands including Okinawa. With that said, the very big cone of uncertainty being shown by the JMA indicates the uncertainty and the forecast and thus anyone inside that cone: Northern Luzon, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands, should continue monitoring the developments of Jelawat. (Watch our video update above for the latest forecast maps from JMA, JTWC, and PAGASA as well as in-depth analysis on the system).

Check back here for continuous updates on this system including in-depth and expert analysis from Meteorologist Robert Speta. As always though, we also urge you to continue checking your country’s official weather bureau whether it be PAGASA, the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, or the Japan Meteorological Agency. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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