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Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) Afternoon Update September 26, 2012

Here is our latest Video Update on Super Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) east of Luzon and also on Tropical Storm Ewiniar near Iwo To. Update on Jelawat starts at the beginning while our update on Tropical Storm Ewiniar begins at around the 10:45 mark. Again, thank you for watching our lengthy yet in-depth video update!

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGWh6x5wtho”%5D

Super Typhoon Jelawat continues to be a very powerful system although according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the system has slightly weakened and has actually been downgraded to a Category 4 Typhoon. The reason for the weakening is the eyewall replacement cycle that has been going on once more! After this cycle is complete, though, we no longer expect Jelawat to intensify further.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Cagayan, Babuyan, Calayan, and Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Isabela. The said provinces should expect winds of up to 100kph to occur in the next 24 to 48 hours. Along with strong winds, areas in Northern Luzon should also expect rains to begin tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of up to 150mm are possible in some areas.

As for the track, there is now high confidence in the forecasts as computer models are in really good agreement this time. Jelawat is forecast to continue moving northwestward perhaps bringing heavy rains and strong winds in the Northern Philippines by tomorrow. But by Friday, the system is forecast to turn north sparing Taiwan from a direct hit. By Saturday, Jelawat is forecast to move very near Okinawa as a Category 2 or even a Category 3 Typhoon. By Monday, it is forecast to impact Mainland Japan as a weakening Tropical Storm and could head near Tokyo by early next week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ewiniar is moving near the Ogasawara Islands bringing heavy rains and strong winds in that island chain. Winds of up to 80kph along with rainfall amounts of up to 100mm have been reported in some islands here. Good news is that weather is forecast to improve by tonight as Ewiniar heads to the north. The storm is not forecast to hit Honshu though as it should move northeastward by Friday and Saturday as it hits the jet stream in this region.

Continue to check back here for the latest updates on both Jelawat and Ewiniar with video updates from Meteorologist Robert Speta as well as on the latest weather headlines in the Western Pacific. As always though, we also urge you to continue checking your country’s official weather bureau whether it be PAGASA, the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, or the Japan Meteorological Agency. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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