Archive | September, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) Afternoon Update September 26, 2012

Here is our latest Video Update on Super Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) east of Luzon and also on Tropical Storm Ewiniar near Iwo To. Update on Jelawat starts at the beginning while our update on Tropical Storm Ewiniar begins at around the 10:45 mark. Again, thank you for watching our lengthy yet in-depth video update!

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGWh6x5wtho”%5D

Super Typhoon Jelawat continues to be a very powerful system although according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the system has slightly weakened and has actually been downgraded to a Category 4 Typhoon. The reason for the weakening is the eyewall replacement cycle that has been going on once more! After this cycle is complete, though, we no longer expect Jelawat to intensify further.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Cagayan, Babuyan, Calayan, and Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Isabela. The said provinces should expect winds of up to 100kph to occur in the next 24 to 48 hours. Along with strong winds, areas in Northern Luzon should also expect rains to begin tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of up to 150mm are possible in some areas.

As for the track, there is now high confidence in the forecasts as computer models are in really good agreement this time. Jelawat is forecast to continue moving northwestward perhaps bringing heavy rains and strong winds in the Northern Philippines by tomorrow. But by Friday, the system is forecast to turn north sparing Taiwan from a direct hit. By Saturday, Jelawat is forecast to move very near Okinawa as a Category 2 or even a Category 3 Typhoon. By Monday, it is forecast to impact Mainland Japan as a weakening Tropical Storm and could head near Tokyo by early next week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ewiniar is moving near the Ogasawara Islands bringing heavy rains and strong winds in that island chain. Winds of up to 80kph along with rainfall amounts of up to 100mm have been reported in some islands here. Good news is that weather is forecast to improve by tonight as Ewiniar heads to the north. The storm is not forecast to hit Honshu though as it should move northeastward by Friday and Saturday as it hits the jet stream in this region.

Continue to check back here for the latest updates on both Jelawat and Ewiniar with video updates from Meteorologist Robert Speta as well as on the latest weather headlines in the Western Pacific. As always though, we also urge you to continue checking your country’s official weather bureau whether it be PAGASA, the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, or the Japan Meteorological Agency. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) Afternoon Update September 25, 2012

Here is our latest Video Update on Super Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) east of Luzon and also on Tropical Storm Ewiniar near Iwo To. Update on Jelawat starts at the beginning while our update on Tropical Storm Ewiniar begins at around the 9:05 mark. Again, thank you for watching our lengthy yet in-depth video update!

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sGUdXfLBIE”%5D

Typhoon Jelawat has managed to intensify into a Category 5 Super Typhoon last night as it successfully completed an eyewall replacement cycle. The system has leveled off now and satellite analysis suggest that another eyewall replacement cycle may be starting! Jelawat is forecast to turn northwestward and could move near the coast of Cagayan by Thursday. It is also forecast to maintain that intensity for at least another 2 days before slowly weakening. There are still large differences in the forecast tracks but the consensus is taking Jelawat just east of Taiwan by Friday and perhaps near Okinawa by Saturday as a Category 2 Typhoon.

Close-up view of Jelawat’s eye courtesy of the MODIS Satellite (Taken from NRLMRY)

For our report on the Tornado in Quezon City please click on the link below:
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/09/25/lawin-jelawat-produces-a-whirlwind-tornado-that-strikes-quezon-philippines/

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ewiniar continues to battle strong westerly wind shear as it nears the Ogasawara Islands. The storm is forecast to move northward and then turn northeastward sparing Honshu. JMA is actually forecasting this system to become a Typhoon by Friday but again, it is expected to be too far to directly impact Tokyo and the nearby areas.

Continue to check back here for the latest updates on both Jelawat and Ewiniar with video updates from Meteorologist Robert Speta as well as on the latest weather headlines in the Western Pacific. As always though, we also urge you to continue checking your country’s official weather bureau whether it be PAGASA, the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, or the Japan Meteorological Agency. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) Afternoon Update September 24, 2012

Here is our latest and in-depth Video Update on Typhoon Jelawat and also on Tropical Depression 19W near the Marianas Islands. It is a lengthy video so please bear with us as discuss in-detail these two systems. If you are only interested in one system, our update on Jelawat begins at the 0:09 mark while our update for the new Tropical Depression begins at around the 10:12 mark. Again, thank you for your patience!

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahNP6JTyZZI”%5D

IR Image from NRLMRY

Based on recent satellite images (above: infra-red image), it seems as if Typhoon Jelawat is nearing the end of the eyewall replacement cycle. The latest image also shows strong convective ring and the system, overall, is looking very symmetrical almost doughnut shaped which is very common in cyclones that have gone eyewall replacement cycle. Outer rain bands also continue to affect parts of the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas bringing rains of up to 50mm. Further to the south, Typhoon Jelawat is enhancing that Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing widespread heavy rains across Palawan, Western Visayas, and Western Mindanao. Some areas in Palawan and Zamboanga have actually reported nearly 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours and more could fall in the said regions in the next few days. In the next 2 to 3 days, those widespread Southwest Monsoonal rains will inch northward eventually reaching Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila.

Forecast Tracks for Jelawat continue to remain inconsistent as computer models continue to shift their tracks. The consensus being shown by the official weather agencies do agree that Jelawat will continue to move northward and turn to the northwest by Wednesday. For now, they’re not expecting the system to make landfall in Luzon. However, Jelawat could move near enough to bring strong winds and heavy rains across Northern Luzon by Thursday. Forecast from JMA is taking Jelawat near Taiwan by Friday but not really expected to make landfall in the island. Instead, most weather bureaus are taking Jelawat to the northeast and could perhaps threaten the Southern Japanese Islands including Okinawa. With that said, the very big cone of uncertainty being shown by the JMA indicates the uncertainty and the forecast and thus anyone inside that cone: Northern Luzon, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands, should continue monitoring the developments of Jelawat. (Watch our video update above for the latest forecast maps from JMA, JTWC, and PAGASA as well as in-depth analysis on the system).

Check back here for continuous updates on this system including in-depth and expert analysis from Meteorologist Robert Speta. As always though, we also urge you to continue checking your country’s official weather bureau whether it be PAGASA, the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, or the Japan Meteorological Agency. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT