Archive | December, 2012

Wukong/Quinta Early Evening Update | December 27, 2012

JMA is still classifying Wukong as a Tropical Storm whereas JTWC and PAGASA have said the system has weakened to a Low Pressure Area. For this update, we defer to JMA since they are the official RSMC for the Western Pacific.

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Either way, the system isn’t really a big threat for the Philippines anymore. In fact, the system is very right now and could completely dissipate by tomorrow as it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Unfortunately, Wukong claimed at least six (6) lives as it moved across the Philippines (3 in Iloilo and 3 in Samar). At least 3 are still missing. In Batangas Province, a boat capsized due to high waves but all passengers were said to have been rescude. Overall, though, much of the country should see better weather except Northeastern Luzon and the Bicol Region.

For more rainfall information and access to the Doppler Radars across the Philippines, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) Afternoon Update | December 26, 2012

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas! Right now, we continue to watching Wukong as it makes its way across Central Philippines.

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The system is now moving away from Panay Island and will be passing south of Mindoro. Heavy rains have tapered across Eastern Visayas although residual rainshowers may still impact the region including Bicol Area tonight. Further to the south, converging winds are enhancing widespread shower activity off of Mindanao which may impact Surigao and Davao Oriental Provinces tonight and into tomorrow.

Latest Signal Warnings from PAGASA:
Signal #1: Mindoro, Romblon, Lubang Island, Northern Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo Island, Marinduque, Aklan, Capiz, Antiue, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, and Guimaras.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Here is our rainfall forecast. We expect the heaviest rains across Mindoro and Western Panay tonight and tomorrow. Moderate rains may also impact Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon; lighter amounts across Eastern Visayas. Mindanao could also get some moderate to heavy rains tonight and into tomorrow.

Wukong will be moving north of Palawan (near Coron) by tomorrow and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday. It may try to intensify as it moves across the South China Sea but by Saturday, we expect the system to begin weakening into a Tropical Depression.

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) Afternoon Update | December 25, 2012

Merry Christmas Everyone! Unfortunately, we have to do a Video Update on this Tropical Cyclone which is currently impacting the Philippines.

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Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) is just east of Visayas and is already impacting the region with moderate to sometimes heavy rains. Up to 80mm of rain has already been reported so far and up to 150mm is still possible over the next 24 to 48 hours. Eastern and Central Visayas are forecast to get the heaviest amounts of precipitation. Northern and Eastern Mindanao may also see widespread rains but they won’t be as heavy.

As of 5pm this afternoon, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:

Signal #2: Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu (including Camotes Island), Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, and Surigao del Norte

Signal #1: Northern Samar, Masbate (including Ticao Island), Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros, Siquijor, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and Surigao del Sur.

Cebu Radar from ClimateX PH

Latest radar out of Cebu Station shows the bands of light to moderate rains impacting parts of Samar, Leyte, Dinagat Island, and also Bohol. Northern Mindanao also getting some light to moderate rains. Scattered showers are also being reported across Cebu, Negros, Iloilo, and the smaller islands in between. Many areas are already reporting more than 50mm of rain. In fact, Tacloban has already seen up to 80mm of rain since this morning and more could be on the way.

For the latest radar images and rainfall data for your area, please click HERE (ClimateX)

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Here is our 2-day rainfall forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Green shadings represent around 50mm of rain, blue for 100mm, and red for up to 150mm of rain. The heaviest precipitation is forecast to fall across Central and Eastern Visayas. Some light to moderate rains may impact Northern Mindanao but they won’t be as heavy. Parts of Eastern Luzon could also see some light to moderate rains due to converging winds.

TS Wukong isn’t really forecast to intensify into a strong cyclone. Nevertheless, its rains will continue affecting Central Philippines for another 2 days possibly bringing widespread floods and landslides. If you are in the affected areas, please coordinate with your local officials for the latest warnings. Have a safe and wonderful holidays!

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Depression Evening Update and Christmas Forecast

Video Update on the newest Tropical Depression and also 2-day Christmas Forecast

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Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded 93W into a Tropical Depression while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA are keeping it as a weak low pressure area. This system has the potential to bring heavy rains across Central Philippines in the next few days. Here is our latest update on this system and also 2-day Christmas Forecast for the Philippines.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TD 93W was last located approximately 640km east of Surigao City. Maximum winds are around 40 to 60kph. The system is moving west northwestward at 30kph. IR Image above shows the system showing little improvement. Convective activity has persisted but is rather sparse and mediocre. The system is in an area of moderate wind shear so not a good environment for development. However, there is still a chance of it becoming a tropical storm so we’ll watch it closely.

Track and Rainfall (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Map above shows the idealized forecast track from computer models. Note that the storm is somewhat north-heavy meaning that much of the rains are located north of the center. For this image, we expect the heaviest of rains to be felt across Visayas Islands, less across Mindanao. Some rains may also impact Luzon by Wednesday. Areas under green are forecast to receive around 50mm or rain; blue could get up to 100mm while areas under red shading could get as much as 150mm of rain over the next two days.

December 25 Forecast

For Christmas Day, expect rains to begin impacting Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Some light rain showers may also move into Southern Luzon particularly in the Bicol Region. Northern Luzon provinces should also expect occasional light rains due to the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Rest of the country, especially along the western sections, should have quieter weather with partly cloudy skies and small chances of rain.

December 26 Forecast

By Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to be moving across Visayas Islands. By this time, rainfall will be more widespread impacting not only Visayas but also parts of Mindanao and Luzon. Still, the heaviest of rains should be across the islands of Cebu, Panay, and Negros. Converging winds may also bring heavy rains across Eastern Luzon particularly across Aurora and Isabela. Furthermore, the Northeast Monsoon will continue to provide damp and cool weather across Northern Luzon.

Please note that the forecast images above are NOT OFFICIAL! Always listen to your local officials (PAGASA) for the latest forecast for your area. We won’t have an update tomorrow; our next one will be on the 26th–Wednesday. Stay safe and have a Merry Christmas!!

-WxCaster PAT