Archive | December, 2012

Tropical Depression Evening Update and Christmas Forecast

Video Update on the newest Tropical Depression and also 2-day Christmas Forecast

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Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded 93W into a Tropical Depression while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA are keeping it as a weak low pressure area. This system has the potential to bring heavy rains across Central Philippines in the next few days. Here is our latest update on this system and also 2-day Christmas Forecast for the Philippines.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TD 93W was last located approximately 640km east of Surigao City. Maximum winds are around 40 to 60kph. The system is moving west northwestward at 30kph. IR Image above shows the system showing little improvement. Convective activity has persisted but is rather sparse and mediocre. The system is in an area of moderate wind shear so not a good environment for development. However, there is still a chance of it becoming a tropical storm so we’ll watch it closely.

Track and Rainfall (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Map above shows the idealized forecast track from computer models. Note that the storm is somewhat north-heavy meaning that much of the rains are located north of the center. For this image, we expect the heaviest of rains to be felt across Visayas Islands, less across Mindanao. Some rains may also impact Luzon by Wednesday. Areas under green are forecast to receive around 50mm or rain; blue could get up to 100mm while areas under red shading could get as much as 150mm of rain over the next two days.

December 25 Forecast

For Christmas Day, expect rains to begin impacting Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Some light rain showers may also move into Southern Luzon particularly in the Bicol Region. Northern Luzon provinces should also expect occasional light rains due to the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Rest of the country, especially along the western sections, should have quieter weather with partly cloudy skies and small chances of rain.

December 26 Forecast

By Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to be moving across Visayas Islands. By this time, rainfall will be more widespread impacting not only Visayas but also parts of Mindanao and Luzon. Still, the heaviest of rains should be across the islands of Cebu, Panay, and Negros. Converging winds may also bring heavy rains across Eastern Luzon particularly across Aurora and Isabela. Furthermore, the Northeast Monsoon will continue to provide damp and cool weather across Northern Luzon.

Please note that the forecast images above are NOT OFFICIAL! Always listen to your local officials (PAGASA) for the latest forecast for your area. We won’t have an update tomorrow; our next one will be on the 26th–Wednesday. Stay safe and have a Merry Christmas!!

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Depression Bopha (Pablo) Evening Update | December 9, 2012

Here is WxCaster PAT’s final video update on Tropical Depression Bopha (Bagyong Pablo).

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The system is now dissipating over the South China Sea, just west of Ilocos Norte in Luzon Island. Very little convection remains although the low-level center is still intact. The proximity of the remnants of Bopha, combined with the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amhinan) will continue to bring breezy conditions and occasional rains across Northern Luzon.

Baguio Doppler Radar from PAGASA

Looking at the latest doppler image from Baguio City, we can see some rain showers still impacting parts of Luzon. Fortunately, most of them are isolated and should not really amount into anything significant.

The remnants of Bopha will be fully absorbed into the frontal boundary and should not be a cause of concern anymore. Hopefully, this will be our last storm this year.

Continue to check with us here at Western Pacific Weather for the latest updates on the Tropics and also out in Eastern Asia. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) Evening Update | December 8, 2012

Here is our latest update on Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) as it nears the western coast of Luzon.

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The proximity of Bopha and the impending threat has led PAGASA to issue Public Storm Warning Signals to numerous provinces.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued the following Public Storm Warning Signals to these provinces:
Signal#2: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union

Signal #1: Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Batanes Group of Islands, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Mt. Province, Benguet, Pangasinan, and Zambales

Doppler from PAGASA

Latest Doppler Radar Image from Baguio City showing the bands of rains associated with Bopha are beginning to move in from the west. Some of those may impact Ilocos Provinces beginning tonight. Intensity and the coverage of those rains will increase as we head into tomorrow and into Monday. Flooding and some landslides are possible.

As for the forecast, there are still some uncertainties regarding Bopha’s track. In fact, the said agency is forecasting Bopha to make landfall in Ilocos Norte by tomorrow. The other agencies such as JMA and JTWC, on the other hand, are forecasting a loop away from Luzon. However, either scenario will lead to light to moderate rains impacting the western coast beginning tonight.

We urge everyone under the signal warnings to be on high alert as the system moves closer. Again, there is still huge uncertainties whether this system will actually make landfall. However, rains are looking a high possibility so if you are living in low-lying areas, mountainous areas, and near bodies of water, we suggest to coordinate with your local officials and continue to monitor the radio or tv for the latest warnings and developments. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT